Searles, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS66 KHNX 242116
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
116 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A strong winter storm system will continue to impact Central
California through mid week.

2. The winter storm system will bring an additional round of
precipitation to the area on Monday and Tuesday. Portions of the
San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see
moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy
snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada.

3. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Wednesday. Total snowfall
accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet
at the higher elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles
per hour. The probability of receiving another 18 inches of
snow by 4 PM Tuesday is 88% for Tuolumne Meadows and 92% for
Tioga Pass.

4. The probability of receiving at least one inch of rain by
Wednesday is 85% for Merced, 96% in Fresno, 90% in Visalia, and
60% in Bakersfield.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We are currently in a lull this afternoon before the rain we are
expecting late tonight into tomorrow. We have a trough off the
coast along with very high probabilities of Integrated Water
Vapor Transport values of at least 250 kg/(m*s). This high IVT
values brings a strong 60 to 95 percent probability of an inch
or more of rain in the San Joaquin Valley by Wednesday morning.

The high moisture value also brings high probabilities of heavy
snow with a 30 to 50 percent probability of 18 inches or more of
snow at 7,000 feet. There is a 50 percent chance of at least 24
inches of snow or more total above 8,000 feet. These high
values have resulted in a continuation of the Winter Storm
Warning through Wednesday afternoon. The highest probabilities
will be in Fresno County and northward. However, Tejon and
Tehachapi Passes will not see any snow due to the very warm
nature of this storm.

Model ensembles are showing the trough to exit California on
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Ensembles are in agreement
that a rex block off the coast will be established on Thursday
leading to continuing spotty showers through Friday. However,
the pattern changes as the rex block turns into a ridge. Latest
CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have a 40 to 60 percent chance of
below average precipitation and increasing probabilities of
above average temperatures.



&&


.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs:
We are expecting VFR conditions until 6Z when spots of MVFR
starts appearing from north to south due to the rain showers and
lower clouds. The Sierra Nevada can see IFR to MVFR conditions
in the snow after 6Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  11/23/2024 14:38
EXPIRES: 11/24/2024 23:59
On Sunday November 24 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ323-
326>331.
&&

$$

public...JPK
aviation....JPK

weather.gov/hanford