Saratoga, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS66 KMTR 140006
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
506 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Cool and quiet weather continues through the forecast period. Dry
conditions persist across high terrain, leading to elevated grass
fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Our story continues with a very seasonably quiet weather pattern
across the CA coast. Minor fluctuations in the marine layer height
will continue to cause some day-to-day differences in humidity
across some of the higher terrain around 2,000 feet. Otherwise
it`s much of the same for most of us closer to sea level. As of
writing, there has been a new fire start south of Hollister. The
good news is that it isn`t particularly windy in the area and
should see good humidity recovery overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Looking into the longer term; A few small perturbations in the
upper level flow that stay to our north will help tamp down the
effects of a broad upper level ridge. This will keep temps a few
degrees below seasonal normals pretty much across the board. We do
see a *slight* warming trend towards the end of the period mid
next week as the ridge builds over the West Coast, but nothing
terribly notable at this point. Perhaps high temperatures near
normal by the middle of next week. Would not be surprised if we
see additional grass and vegetation fire starts over the next
several days - like the one mentioned near Hollister - as grasses
and fine fuels are very dry and susceptible to catching fire.
Again, the good news is that we are looking to stay under a
seasonable onshore flow regime throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this afternoon,
with little to no stratus being observed across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. Profilers show that the marine layer near Bodega Bay
is sill around 1500ft which should support the redevelopment of
stratus tonight. The challenge will be, just how far inland does it
go? Favored the inherited TAFs, though added some possibility for
stratus at KSJC and removed windshear at the North Bay terminals.
Will need to keep an eye on KLVK as some guidance has entering the
vicnity of the range ring.

Vicinity of SFO...High cloud streams over the San Francisco region.
Area webcams are showing similar features and perhaps a few low
clouds lingering, matching the METAR for KSFO and KOAK. The marine
layer is roughly around 1500ft and should generally hold tonight.
Guidance for SFO is a bit mixed, but opted to favor the HREF, GLAMP,
and NBM guidance for timing out the return of the stratus tonight
which is similar to a persistence forecast. Expect MVFR to IFR CIGS
with conditions improving by late morning. There may be some pesky
lingering low cloud again tomorrow, otherwise expect VFR conditions
for the afternoon and early evening. The stratus signal for tomorrow
night generally favors an after 06Z arrival, though opted to hint at
that with it arriving around 05Z. In addition to the stratus, gusty
west to west-northwest will prevail.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The region has mostly cleared out, with
stratus lingering on the edge and just offshore of the Monterey
Peninsula. Expect stratus to fill back in tonight, likely around or
after 06Z. Given we still have a few clouds to the west of KMRY, I
tried to hint at the possibility of stratus returning earlier this
evening perhaps closer to 03Z. Confidence was too low to go anything
other than FEW and opted to trend more optimistic with clearing
occuring late in the morning.
&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 506 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Tuesday. Localized
gale force gusts are expected near the coastal jet regions of
Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Another veg fire, Lime Fire, developed in the interior Central
Coast again this afternoon. This will be a common theme over the
weekend as elevated fire weather conditions prevail.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given
the onshore flow winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for
inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...RGass

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