Ripley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS65 KPSR 092300
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Wed Apr 9 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures will impact the Desert Southwest
through the rest of the week as strong high pressure builds over the
region. Temperatures are expected to peak Friday as many lower
desert locations are forecast to see highs in the triple digits.
These temperatures will be around 15 degrees above normal with some
daily record highs likely being broken through Saturday. Breezy
conditions will increase this weekend, while temperatures cool into
the upper 80s to low 90s range late weekend into next week.
Dry conditions will persist through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues as a strong ridge of high pressure
continues to build over the region. Objective analysis early this
afternoon showed 500 mb heights over the area around 584-586 dm and
will continue rise before peaking tomorrow around 587-589 dm. Given
this, heights are expected to reach record territory and thus result
in temperatures climbing into record territory tomorrow through
Saturday. Lower desert highs climb into the mid to upper 90s
tomorrow before peaking Friday in the triple digits for many areas.
The forecast high for Phoenix tomorrow is 100 degrees, which would
tie for the 4th earliest 100 degree occurrence on record.
Probabilities for tying/breaking record highs in Phoenix will climb
to around 70-80% tomorrow before further climbing in excess of 90%
Friday and Saturday. Given these unseasonably warm temperatures over
the next few days, Moderate HeatRisk coverage will increase across
the area, so those more vulnerable to the heat should take extra
heat safety precautions.

Heading into this weekend, ensemble guidance show the strong ridge
shifting east and weakening as a Pacific trough shifts into the
Pacific Northwest. Ensembles continue to differ on the depth of this
trough with the GEFS output supporting a deeper solution with
stronger winds. For now, expect breezy winds gusting upwards of 20-
30 mph with the strongest winds focused across the higher terrain
north and east of Phoenix this weekend. Combined with very dry
conditions, the gusty winds will promote elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions, particularly across the higher
terrain areas. Temperatures will trend cooler late this weekend into
next week due to the aforementioned trough and additional troughs
next week. However, temperatures are forecast to remain above normal
during this time with highs ranging in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry
conditions will persist through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues will exist through Thursday evening under clear
skies. Trends in timing of directional wind shifts will be nearly
identical to the past 24 hours with speeds remaining under 10 kts.
Periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are currently
being forecast for this weekend, as widespread breezy conditions
develop to go along with hot and very dry conditions. Afternoon
temperatures in the 90s will be common each day across the lower
deserts, with highs reaching around 100 degrees Thursday through
Saturday. Very dry conditions will persist each day, with MinRH
values in the single digits each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
will be poor most nights, with MaxRH values to 15-30%. The driest
conditions will be late week through this weekend across eastern
districts where RH values are forecast to remain at or below 20%.
Winds will be fairly light through Thursday, with a slight uptick
on Friday, and then widespread breezy conditions are forecast for
this weekend. Widespread wind gusts up to 20-30 mph are forecast for
Saturday, with potential for localized peak gusts greater than 30
mph. The wind forecast is subject to change, but there is high
confidence in the persistent hot and dry conditions. No rain is
expected over the next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr  9   102 in 1989   102 in 1989   104 in 1989
Apr 10   100 in 2018   100 in 1960    98 in 2018
Apr 11    99 in 2023   101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12    99 in 1936   102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Benedict
CLIMATE...Kuhlman