Paicines, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXUS66 KMTR 231928
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1128 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 841 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

While most areas will be dry today, some light showers will be
possible especially across North Bay. More widespread significant
rainfall will return to the region later tonight and into Tuesday
morning. Very hazardous beach conditions will continue through
Tuesday. While Christmas Day may be dry, unsettled and wet weather
will continue through the latter part of the week and weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging over the Northern
California this morning, with the next system poised near 40 North
and 135 West. As a result, high clouds are starting to spread across
the region, ahead of the warm front. These high clouds have not
really disrupted the fog formation that we saw early this morning,
but visibilities are starting to improve at this time. Some
drizzle has also been reported this morning, with just a
hundredths of an inch reported the region. Temperatures are also
pretty mild out there this morning, with most areas seeing in the
mid 50s to lower 60s already. Given these mild conditions and the
fact the sun is peaking through the relatively thin cloud cover at
this time, expect temperatures today to warm into the 60s most
locations, with the warmest spots topping out around 70 degrees.
This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Main concern for today remains with the building surf and
potential for coastal flooding. Buoys indicate there is a lot of
water moving out there, and we are just starting to see the
impacts. If you are headed out to the coast today, stay off the
rocks, jetties, and beaches, as these large breaking waves can
sweep across the beach without warning.

Otherwise, light rain will be possible, mainly across North Bay
today, as the warm front starts to drape across the region.
However, the brunt on the rain will spread from north to south
across the region late tonight and on Tuesday, with the cold
front. There is enough instability with this system, that there is
a slight chance of thunderstorms possible as well. While this
rain will mostly be beneficial for the region, North Bay will
once again see the brunt of the rainfall. Given the wet weather
and moist antecedent conditions, believe streams and creeks will
rapidly rise once again. For now, the forecast remain below flood
stage, so we will need to watch them closely.

Other lesser concerns with this system are with the winds. Breezy
south southwesterly winds will develop late tonight and into
Tuesday morning, as 925 mb and 850 winds increase to 20 to 30 kts,
before shifting to westerly behind the front. At this time,
cannot rule out some gusts up to 40 mph, but do not see the need
for widespread wind products. That said, with the saturated soils,
even a gust to 40 mph could down a tree.

Current forecast looks on track, and no updates are planned at
this time. Palmer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 119 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

Key Messages:
*Train of storm systems through next week
*Most impactful storm appears to be late tonight into Tuesday
*Rainfall totals between today and Sunday: North Bay: 4-10" | Bay
 Area: 1-6" | Central Coast: 1-5" | Salinas Valley: Up to 1"
*Wind gusts up to 40 mph (isolated 45 mph in spots) on Tuesday
*Life-threatening beach and ocean conditions linger into next week

High resolution model output points to scattered coastal drizzle and
some scattered showers in the North Bay, particularly in
orographically favored areas, through the course of the day with
probabilities ticking upwards starting in the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Otherwise most of the region remains dry with high
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to near 70 in the inland valleys
of the Bay Area and Central Coast, the mid 60s near downtown San
Francisco and Oakland, the lower 60s in the North Bay valleys and
along the Pacific coast, and the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the
higher elevations. Very hazardous marine conditions continue through
the day with a Coastal Flood Warning and a High Surf Warning in
effect through noon on Tuesday (see BEACHES for more information).

Tonight into Tuesday morning, the next band of rain is expected to
be the most impactful rainband of this active weather pattern so
far. Intense rain is set to begin impacting the North Bay late
tonight with the band moving through the Bay Area and Central Coast
overnight into the morning hours of Tuesday. Rainfall totals are
expected to reach 0.5-1" across the North Bay valleys and coastal
ranges south of the Golden Gate, up to 2" in the North Bay
mountains, 0.3-0.6" in the Bay Area valleys and Monterey Bay region,
and up to 0.25" across the interior Central Coast. The Weather
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
(at least a 5% chance that rainfall totals exceed flash flood
guidance) for tonight through 4 AM Tuesday across the northern and
western halves of Sonoma County. The main threats will be the
possibility for rapid rises in the creeks, streams, and small rivers,
especially as the last couple of days have moistened the soils.

Gusty winds will also spread with the rainband with gusts around 20-
30 mph in the valleys, reaching up to 35-45 mph in the ridgelines
and through the gaps and passes. As for convective probabilities,
model output is showing relatively robust CAPE values of around 200-
400 J/kg on Tuesday, but the 0-6km shear remains low (around 10-20
knots) during the passage of the highest CAPE values, thus
minimizing one of the three key ingredients (instability, shear, and
lift) for convection. The robust instability (for this part of the
world) may still foster some robust updrafts and thus a gusty wind
(up to 45-50 mph) and lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/km per
forecast sounding would support coin-sized hail (pennies or
smaller).

Temperatures are expected to drop on Tuesday with the highs in the
middle 50s to near 60 in the lower elevations and the lower to
middle 50s in the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

The Christmas Day forecast remains dry and partially sunny, although
hazardous marine and beach conditions continue to persist. Rain
returns to the forecast on Thursday with some uncertainty in the
exact totals. Analysis of the ensemble model clusters continues to
suggest that groupings that mainly consist of runs from the Canadian
and GFS ensemble models show shortwave ridging and "drier" scenarios
while those drawing from the European EPS model offer "wetter"
solutions.

Regardless of the actual rainfall totals, impacts from these
forthcoming systems could be notable. The Weather Prediction Center
has issued Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall across Sonoma
County for Thursday and Friday. In addition, with saturating soils
across the Bay Area, the risk for shallow landslides is increasing,
especially in the North Bay. We`re continuing to use the
deterministic NBM in our forecast, although additional refinements
may be necessary through the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

Areas improve to MVFR-VFR this afternoon with passing mid to high-
level clouds. Winds remain generally light through the day. Pre-
frontal showers build in the North Bay into the evening with
lowering CIGS. The main frontal rain band arrives in the North Bay
early Tuesday morning bringing moderate rains and breezy to gusty
winds, lowering visibilities. CIGS lift in the post-frontal
environment as winds turn more westerly. Showers linger behind the
front with isolated storm chances until the late afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR CIGS last into the evening before becoming
MVFR. Expect light showers to arrive into the night followed by the
main rain band into early Tuesday. Gusty west winds move into the
area along the moderate rains, leading to reductions in visibility.
Expect winds to reduce into the late morning as the rain band exits,
with lingering shower activity into the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the early night before MVFR
CIGS build into the area. Winds stay light to moderate through the
day and into the night. Light rains and lowers CIGs arrive in the
late night ahead of the front. CIGS rise, but visibilities fall as
the main rain band enters the area in the mid morning. Breezy to
gusty west winds will come along with the front and last into the
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 855 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

A very large westerly swell is arriving and will persist into
Tuesday, with only slight reductions into Wednesday. Expect
dangerous conditions for small crafts through much of the week.
Elevated seas will continue to produce enhanced shoaling at harbor
entrances and bars.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 119 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

A High Surf Warning is now in effect through noon Tuesday for
breaking waves 30 to 35 feet, with some of the favored spots such
as Mavericks potentially experiencing up to 40 foot breaking
waves. With the duration of this High Surf Warning, a Coastal
Flood Warning is also in effect to address the potential for
significant impacts to coastal locations such as piers, wharfs,
and other structures along the coastline. Flooding/inundation of
roads, parking lots, and coastal trails can also be anticipated.
These conditions will result in dangerous and life-threatening
bay, ocean, and beach conditions through Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday,
swell heights will begin to diminish, but favorable conditions for
hazardous surf conditions remain into the next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     High Surf Warning until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
     530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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