Orick, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

824
FXUS66 KEKA 122157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
257 PM PDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Currently cool and gusty conditions will gradually give
way to warmer and calmer conditions Sunday and Monday. Cooler and
gustier conditions return mid week. There is currently no chance of
rain for the next 7 days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Temperatures will warm Sunday and Monday with interior highs in the
80s.

-Weakening north wind will allow for warm conditions along shore,
especially Monday.

-Cooler conditions with some gusty north wind near shore return mid
week.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Sunny but cool weather has built across
the area today with even interiors highs generally in the 60s.
Conditions have felt particularly cool along shore where gusty north
winds of 15 to 30 mph have persisted throughout the afternoon.

Weak and transient upper level ridging will spread over the
Northwest California Sunday and Monday. This will calm winds but
also allow for hotter conditions with many interior valleys warming
up into the mid to low 80s. Low pressure positions over the central
coast will also weaken any marine layer, most likely promoting
coastal temperatures in the 60s. A high pressure inversion may allow
for shallow marine fog along the coast overnight Sunday into Monday,
but any such layer will be weak and localized.

High pressure will gradually weaken by mid next week as a shallow
shortwave dips along shore. The largest impacts of this patterns
will be temperatures cooling back into the upper 60s for the
interiors with a return of more gusty north wind along shore, though
there is little chance (10%) of gusts of similar strength to the
past couple of days.

There is some forecast uncertainty by the end of next week as a
cutoff low is forecast to travel south along shore, but essentially
no model ensemble members show any measurable precipitation along
the low.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence is high at
least through early next week with not real hazardous scenarios of
note.

As is normal, the greatest forecast variability in the short term is
related to the chance of a marine layer forming alongshore Sunday
night into Monday. The greatest chances will be around Humboldt Bay
with any layer most likely to be very shallow. Related to this
chance, Monday has the greatest uncertainty in coastal high
temperatures. Though most models show highs in the mid 60s, about
20% show the potential for highs reaching 70 if marine air burns of
quickly.

Beyond that, the greatest uncertainty will be for near shore winds
around Wednesday. There is a consistent signal of gustier north wind
returning near shore, but their strength remains very variable with
about 40% of ensemble members showing gusts below 15 mph but a group
of about 30% showing gusts near 30 mph. Otherwise though the exact
detail of temperature and wind have high uncertainty by late in the
week, essentially no models indicate precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...Skies have largely cleared early this afternoon as high
pressure builds. Winds at the coastal terminals are breezy, with
gusts already observed in the 25-35 kt range. These will continue
through the afternoon and begin to ease overnight. LLWS is possible
tonight at CEC as winds turn easterly aloft, though models vary on
if it will be impactful over the terminal. Models are hinting at
stratus formation over the Eel Delta and Humboldt Bay, but the
chance for impacts at ACV remains low as offshore flow develops
overnight. Otherwise, conditions remain VFR at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. JB


&&

.MARINE...Buoy observations this afternoon have shown near-gale to
gale force northerly winds with steep to hazardous seas of 9 to 12
ft. Winds begin to ease tonight into Sunday and seas begin to ease
Sunday morning and afternoon. Northerly winds increase again Monday
evening into Tuesday, with near-gale to gale force gusts possible in
the outer waters, especially north of Cape Mendocino. Seas will
respond with 13-15 ft significant wave heights possible in the outer
waters. Lighter winds are forecast nearshore, but conditions could
still be hazardous to small crafts as steep seas of 7-10 ft are
possible along with wind gusts of 20-25 kts. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png