Olancha, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS65 KVEF 240804
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
104 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Other than a low chance for showers on the Sierra crest this
  afternoon, dry conditions are likely through the week.

* Haze is possible today and Tuesday as south winds push elevated
  smoke in from fires in Baja California.

* Below-normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday before
  rising to near normal and then above normal later in the week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday. Midnight satellite loop showed low
pressure centered over south central California moving slowly east.
On the front side of this low, a jet streak was pushing northward
from southern California into east central Nevada. This was helping
to drive elevated convection over Nye and Lincoln counties. No
lightning had been detected, but two wind gusts of 60 and 77 mph had
been recorded on the NNSS, presumably from "virga bombs" evaporating
in the dry subcloud air. By sunrise, the jet streak should no longer
be in a favorable position to generate lift over our CWA, and the
low will slowly fill and drift east through the day. Afternoon
convection, if any, should be limited to the Sierra Nevada where
orographic lift will be maximized. The other feature of interest
will be smoke and haze from distant wildfires. Wednesday through
Sunday should be relatively quiet over our area, with breezy
afternoons and a warming trend pushing temperatures above normal as
heights rise overhead. At this time, there are only tiny splotches
of Major HeatRisk expected on Sunday. This very low coverage is
probably more due to the time of year, as we are getting within a
few degrees of the climatologically hottest time of the year, so it
is more difficult to have unseasonably hot conditions. That said,
even temperatures a few degrees above average can be dangerous for
those with poor heat tolerance or without access to air
conditioning. Monday is more uncertain, as there is good model
agreement on the existence of low pressure nearing the California
coast, but not such good agreement on whether this low will be able
to tap into moist monsoon flow which should be established over New
Mexico and perhaps Arizona.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
South-southeasterly winds stuck around longer than originally
anticipated this evening, but the direction should completely shift
from the southwest between 06 and 07Z with sustained speeds less
than 10 kts and no gusts. Winds Tuesday will be similar to today,
but to a lesser magnitude... south-southeasterly through the
afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times, ultimately falling off
after sunset. Like today, south-southeasterly winds could hang
around as late as 06Z before the nocturnal switch from the
southwest. Haze will be possible at times, with occasional minor
drops in surface-based visibility Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise,
expect slantwise visibility reductions through the TAF period due to
haze from nearby wildfires.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds on
Tuesday will be similar to today, with breezy south-southwest winds
impacting Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites in
the afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times. KDAG will gust from
the west this evening before speeds drop below 10 kts overnight.
Breezy west winds return late Tuesday afternoon. KBIH will be
largely light and diurnal. Slantwise visibility reductions possible
through the TAF period at all TAF sites due to haze from nearby
wildfires.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Soulat

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