Ojai, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS66 KLOX 210454
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
954 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...20/154 PM.

Hot conditions with an increased risk of heat illness will
continue through Thursday before cooling to near normal by the
holiday weekend. Breezy and dry conditions focused across the
interior will lead to heightened fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area this evening. Current sounding data indicates
marine layer is very shallow, 500 feet or less in depth. As for
winds, gusty Sundowners (gusts 35-45 MPH) are observed along with
some gusty westerly winds (25-35 MPH) across the Antelope Valley.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main concerns will be
winds and possible development of marine layer stratus. With
respect to winds, gradients will relax overnight. So, current
gusty winds will gradually diminish overnight. As for marine layer
stratus, low to moderate confidence in development of stratus
overnight. Whatever amount of stratus/fog develops, it will be
confined to coastal plain south of Point Conception. Given the
very shallow depth of the inversion, any fog that develops will
likely be dense.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected. For Wednesday
through Thursday, main focus will continue to be the heat.

***From Previous Discussion***

Heat away from the coast and night to morning dense fog near the
coast look to be the main weather hazards through Thursday. We
have below normal confidence in the Heat Advisory described in
some detail below, especially near the coast, including Downtown
Los Angeles, with the increasing potential for natures air
conditioning via the marine layer potentially sheltering these
areas from the worst of the heat Wednesday and especially
Thursday.

The warming trend continued today with temperatures already
around 90 degrees by noon across warmer valleys with daytime highs
expected for these areas in the 90-95+ range, focused in the San
Fernando Valley and some adjacent areas where a Heat Advisory is
in effect starting today. A few degrees of additional warming is
likely into Wednesday, focused away from immediate coastal areas,
which may see their warmest day today. The Heat Advisory expands
to most coasts and and coastal valleys as well as southern Salinas
Valley including Paso Robles into Wednesday and Thursday.

Breezy Sundowner winds and increasing northwest to onshore winds
across the interior by Thursday may near advisory levels, but
perhaps more importantly will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns where the grass has already dried out, focused across the
mountains and interior valleys. Please take care with fire
ignition sources in these areas in particular.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/154 PM.

The weak ridge responsible for the warmup breaks down by Friday
and with limited weather impacts on the horizon and near to
slightly above normal temperatures and winds likely prevailing
through at least this weekend. Night to morning low clouds may
more widespread with less dense fog concerns, especially in
coastal areas. We may see near advisory level northwest Sundowner
winds for southwest Santa Barbara County and interior mountains
especially near the I-5 corridor in the Friday/Saturday time
frame. Fire weather concerns will continue, especially across the
far interior mountains and valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0253Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 300 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 2000 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in L.A. desert and valley TAFs, moderate
confidence for the remainder of TAFs. There is a 30% chc of LIFR
conds at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX 10Z-16Z. Lower confidence in cigs for
KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of VFR
conds through the period. If cigs do arrive, there is a 30% chc of
1/4SM-1/2SM FG BKN002 conds 10Z-16Z Wed. Any east wind component
should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...20/952 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for seas relative to the
forecast for winds.

For the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central
Coast, conditions will be at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Wednesday night, except for lulls nearshore along
the Central Coast during late night and early morning hours.
There is a 40 percent chance for short-lived GALE Force winds
Wednesday night to early Thursday morning for the northern outer
waters. There is a moderate chance for GALE Force winds for
Thursday evening and Friday evening.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds are expected to remain
below SCA levels, however local SCA wind gusts are possible
across the far western portions tonight. Chances for SCA
conditions lessen Wednesday through Friday.

South of Point Mugu, into the Santa Monica Bay, and the San Pedro
Channel, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through at least Friday.

SCA level seas of 10 feet or greater are expected throughout most
of the outer waters through at least Wednesday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 9 PM
      PDT Thursday for zones
      88-343-348-351>353-356>358-368-374-375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 369>373. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Thompson
AVIATION...Phillips/Lund
MARINE...Phillips/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox