Occidental, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS66 KMTR 091142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
341 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

Active pattern continues with a shift towards cooler temps and
increased moisture. Decent rain chances across the region by early
next week, and potentially later in the week as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

Dry hands? Me too. A very dry airmass and light offshore flow
persists this morning as we still find ourselves feeling a bit of
the influence of the strong and slow moving system currently
entering the Central Plains. In fact, a quick look at the
dewpoints as of writing and you`ll find plenty of 30s, 20s, and
even teens across many lower elevations (15F here in Monterey at
1 AM). For comparison, we normally expect to see dewpoints in the
40s this time of year in Monterey. All hope is not lost, however,
and your hands will see some relief later today! A weak trough is
progged to move through the region by this evening into tonight.
The biggest change that it will bring us is an increase in high
clouds (might be a good sunset), and potentially some light rain
to the North Bay coastal ranges. The next most notable change will
be the increasing humidity as large scale onshore flow is
restored. This weak trough becomes cut off and rather insignificant
pretty quickly as the next more robust system moves in. More
about that below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1253 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

A very active pattern is shaping up across the northeast Pacific
through the rest of the forecast period. A deep upper low moving
in from the Gulf of Alaska brings in much more moisture and as of
this forecast appears progressive enough to spread measurable
rainfall throughout the region. Not our first widespread rainmaker
of the season, but this is typically what we like to see when we
start to talk about the "storm door" opening up. Still a couple of
days out, so pay attention to updates, but it looks like everyone
will most likely see at least something measurable by Monday
night. Of course the highest amounts will be in the North Bay
coastal ranges up to 0.6", generally 0.3-0.5" elsewhere, and
0.1-0.3" for further inland locations and rain shadows. Not a lot,
but certainly beneficial to pump the brakes on fire season. The
active pattern continues into the latter half of the week where
ensemble guidance is advertising another deep upper low swinging
into the West Coast. Cluster analysis actually instills reasonable
confidence in the pattern 7 days out that would bring additional
(beneficial) rainfall to the region by next Thursday/Friday. This
isn`t enough to say that we are completely out of the woods in
regards to fire season, but this meteorologist is certainly
excited about what the next two weeks holds for our Bay Area and
Central Coast weather!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 341 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

A dry air mass continues to support VFR. Satellite shows a few
areas of low clouds and fog over the coastal waters drifting
eastward. Tonight and Sunday morning, areas of coastal low clouds
and fog /IFR/ reach the coastline.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light and variable wind becoming west near
10 knots during the afternoon, diminishing to near 5 knots tonight
and Sunday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Mainly east to southeast cool air
drainage winds 5 to 10 knots this morning, winds then becoming
onshore 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mainly east to southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

A cold front approaches and moves across the coastal waters and
bays on Veterans Day. The front will result in a band of rain then
a wind shift over to drier northwesterly winds. Another frontal
system with rain approaches the Bay Area during the middle of next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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