Occidental, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS66 KMTR 251959
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA
1259 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Cool, cloudy, and for some, rainy conditions are forecast over
the next 24 hours. Significant impacts due to rain or isolated
storms are not anticipated. Some mountain top snow is also
forecast across the Santa Lucia Range. Sunday and into next week
appear rain-free with a slight warming trend. Thereafter, the
upper air pattern may support opportunities for light rain next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25

-Short Term Key Messages
*Cool and cloudy conditions
*Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances
*Mountain top light snow

Showers will continue this afternoon and evening across southern
portions of the Bay Area as well as the Central Coast. The
primary culprit appears to be a couple of PV anomalies along the
2PVU surface rotating around the main upper low/trough. Rain will
still remain on the "lighter" end and 12 hour rainfall amounts
have largely tallied around a few hundredths of an inch across the
region.

As the main upper trough digs southward, we`ll see a
re-invigoration of marine showers that will slide eastward. Guidance
has been rather insistent on the Big Sur Coastline being the
favored region for convection and given the range in the forecast,
I`ll nudge PoPs upward. As the upper low continues to pinwheel
down the Central Coast, some modest 850-700mb WAA or trough of
warm air aloft may result in some precipitation across the North
Bay early Saturday morning. Currently, the greatest PoPs reside
down across the Central Coast with rain chances ranging from
60-70% with PoPs around 30-50% across the North Bay. This leaves
the heart of the Bay Area in a minimum PoP wise, but even here, a
few sprinkles or light showers will remain possible (albeit around
20%).

As far as the potential for isolated thunderstorms, this remains
a possibility, though the probability is diminishing. Forecast
soundings indicate lapse rates may not be quite as steep (likely
do to some slight shifts in the location of the coldest air
aloft), but still supportive of more vigorous showers with a few
isolated lightning strikes. For now, have confined the risk for a
few storms to southern Monterey and San Benito counties. At this
time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but brief
bouts of accumulating hail may result in slick driving conditions.

There still remains an opportunity for some snow across the
higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Range and potentially portions
of the Diablo Range. Overall, not anticipating much in the way of
significant impacts due to snow.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

-Long Term Key Messages
*Lingering rain chances on Sunday Morning
*Modest warming trend, `Minor` HeatRisk next week

A slight change to the long term forecast and there now remains
a potential (20-30% chance ) for lingering precipitation after
sunrise Sunday. As the upper low departs, large scale ascent
should ramp down. However, low level moisture remains plentiful
and there`s still an opportunity for largely light drizzle with
some breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) as the surface
pressure gradient remains a little tight.

Longer term model projections support a handful of days that will
be dominated by shortwave ridging. This will mean a gradual
warming trend, with "minor" HeatRisk returning. This type of heat
isn`t overly impactful, except to those that are exceptionally
sensitive to heat (very young and elderly). As we progress into
the first weekend of May, there are some signs that the pattern
evolve such that a couple of upper troughs slide through the
area. This may mean additional rain chances in the day 8-10 time
frame according to a couple of the ensemble clusters. For now,
we`ll hold serve with a largely rain-free forecast given the time
of year and the consensus of a dry period among a majority of the
NWP. Of course, early May rains will be beneficial as it pertains
to delaying the start of our dry/spring fire season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Low pressure spins offshore leaving much of the area with VFR cigs,
though a few areas have seen cigs fall to MVFR for a few hours. This
should generally remain the trend for the forecast period, unless a
shower moves over the region. Tomorrow morning, when rain chances
look to pick up, we may see longer stretches of MVFR for terminals
around KSFO and down the Central Coast, though confidence is low on
timing and exact locations of showers.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions should prevail through much of the
day, with VCSH being possible through the evening. Showers should
start to increase by Saturday morning and perhaps bring a brief
period of MVFR conditions. Conditions look to improve mid to late
morning with VFR conditions prevailing through the day.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar story as the rest of the TAF sites,
though Monterey Bay Terminals likely have the best shots of showers
through the forecast period and into Saturday. Generally VFR
conditions will prevail, though MVFR conditions will be possible
with any stronger showers that move through. There is a small chance
for thunderstorms for the southern half of Monterey and San Benito
counties.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 842 AM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A chilly upper level low arriving from the northwest will result
in scattered showers across the coastal waters and bays today
through Sunday morning. Gusty northwest winds and rough seas
return across the northern outer coastal waters late Saturday. Dry
weather returns early next week due to an eastward moving high
pressure system over the Pacific.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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