Oakhurst, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

336
FXUS66 KHNX 230554
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
954 PM PST Mon Dec 22 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Sierra Nevada below 9,000
feet and foothills, mainly Yosemite, as well as Mariposa and
Madera Counties until Friday. The Flood Watch will then cover
all portions of our forecast area mainly up to 7,000 feet from
Tuesday afternoon until Friday afternoon.

2. Chances for precipitation, with moderate to heavy amounts at
times, continue for the Sierra Nevada and its foothills from
Fresno County northwards through Tuesday morning.

3. A second, stronger system is expected to arrive by Tuesday
afternoon, with a moderate risk for heavy precipitation
throughout Central California, and a moderate risk for heavy
snow in the Sierra Nevada expected from Christmas Eve through
Friday of next week.

4. Gusty winds will also impact much of the forecast area from
Tuesday afternoon until Christmas Day with downed trees and
large branches possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A very active period with impactful precipitation and gusty
winds begins late Tuesday afternoon and lasts through Christmas
Day. Some increase in winds will be noticed in the Central
Valley, with downed trees possible with the strongest winds,
such as towards the west side, the south end near Bakersfield,
and Merced County. Gusty winds will also impact the typical
prone areas including the coastal ranges and the Kern County
mountains and desert. Until tomorrow afternoon, we can expect
mostly cloudy skies with mild temperatures.

There is some risk of heavy precipitation towards the Kern
County mountains, as the Weather Prediction Center shows at
least a slight (15-40% chance) to moderate (40-70% chance) risk
for this area, including along Interstate 5 through the
Grapevine. Currently, the probability for at least 3 inches of
rain to fall in this area is around 50-60 percent and a 10-20
percent chance for 6 inches or more. There are even higher
chances (65-75%) over northern portions of our Sierra Nevada,
mainly below 7,000 feet to receive a total of at least 6 inches.
The chances for one inch of rain per 24 hours during Tuesday
afternoon until Christmas Day in the Central Valley are as high
as 60-70 percent, with lesser chances towards the middle
portions and anywhere where rain shadowing occurs. We will keep
the Flood Watch in effect for much of our forecast area, as the
likelihood for widespread moderate to heavy precipitation has
been consistently high for quite some time. Expect rises along
waterways and minor flooding to occur due to this precipitation.
Recent burn scars, especially those due to the Basin, Garnet,
French, and Borel Fires, will be particularly vulnerable to
excessive runoff and debris flows. Several inches of snow will
fall in the Sierra above 7,000 feet; the probabilities for at
least three feet of snow are at around 75 to 85 percent with
even greater chances over the highest peaks. This will allow a
great start to this winter for Sierra Nevada snowpack. In
addition, during this period, there will be a slight chance
(10-20%) for thunderstorms.

Cool, unsettled conditions remain in our area into Friday
into Saturday. Snow levels lower to around 4,000 to 5,000 feet
during this period, which will bear watching, especially with
any lingering showers that could pass over the mountain passes
in Kern County. It appears we get some break in precipitation
for late Saturday until Sunday. Models project a closed upper
low that cuts off and brings some possibility of additional
precipitation, though not as heavy, to Southern California and
southern portions of our area sometime early next week.

The Climate Prediction Center shows a 40-50 percent chance
of above average precipitation for the latest 8-14 day period,
with slightly lesser chances for the 6-10 day period. Above
average temperatures remain favored.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail mainly until 00Z Wednesday, except
MVFR visibility from 09Z-17Z Tuesday in the San Joaquin Valley.
Gusty southerly winds develop with 15-20 kt winds with gusts
22-30 kts towards MCE mainly after 00Z Wednesday and after
19Z Tuesday near BFL. Precipitation with MVFR to IFR ceilings
develop over the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains after
00Z Wednesday combined with wind gusts 40-50 kts.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday December 23 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning for All in Kern County. Burning
Discouraged in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for CAZ300>317-319>322-327>339.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for
CAZ333>339.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for
CAZ300>304-308-309-313-314-316>318-324-332.
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ318-323>326.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM PST Friday for
CAZ326>331.
&&

$$

BSO

weather.gov/hanford