Northstar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS65 KREV 221040
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
240 AM PST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Periods of light rain and high elevation snow expected into Monday
  morning with some travel delays through Sierra passes possible.

* Monday will be the best day for holiday travel before a stronger
  storm brings gusty winds, valley rain, and heavier mountain snow.

* Dry, mild weather prevails on Christmas with additional storms
  likely late this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The first of today`s two distinct periods of rain and high elevation
snow is well underway as early morning radar captures increasing
showers approaching the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward
towards Mammoth. This incipient shower activity will last through
the morning before tapering off by the afternoon. While a few
light rain showers may be able to reach the Sierra Front
(including the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area), latest CAMs
suggest that precip will be mostly shadowed out in this area. The
second wave of showers will arrive tonight, providing light rain
and high Sierra snow through the Monday AM commute. With snow
levels residing between 8000 to 9000 feet, lower Sierra
communities such as Truckee, South Lake Tahoe, and Mammoth Lakes
will see decent wetting rains of 0.2-0.5" by Monday morning.
Meanwhile, highest Sierra peaks will likely receive 2-4" of snow
through Monday morning with a 15-20% chance of 6+" of snow along
the Sierra crest in Mono County.

A brief intermission in the unsettled weather is in store Monday
from the mid-morning through the early evening, which will be the
best time to do any holiday travel. A stronger storm arrives to
the Sierra and western Nevada Monday night, providing another dose
of gusty winds, valley rain, and heavier mountain snowfall
through Christmas Eve. Snowfall totals have trended upwards
slightly from the afternoon forecast suite, but chances of 6+" and
12+" of snow along the Sierra crest by Christmas morning remain
in excess of 70% and 40%, respectively. Meanwhile, communities
near lake level still have a 50-70% of an inch or more by
Christmas morning. Snow levels will fall from 8500 feet Monday
night to near 5500 feet Wednesday morning, so there is a chance
(20-30%) that foothills/Virginia City will see at least a dusting
of snow. Gusty southwest to west winds return late Monday into
Tuesday (Christmas Eve) with most locales having 40% or greater
odds of gusts reaching 30+ mph. As such, there remains high
confidence that impacts to recreation and travel will unfold on
Christmas Eve. So again, get your traveling done on Monday!

Dry, mild weather is expected for Christmas Day before additional
storms likely roll through late this week into next weekend.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Periods of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration is expected into
Monday morning with a distinct break with best CIGS/VIS favoring the
afternoon and evening hours (19Z through 03Z timeframe). FL100 winds
will remain between 30-40 kts before weakening on Monday. A stronger
storm will bring deteriorated flight conditions late Monday and
Tuesday.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$