Narod, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXUS66 KSGX 171646
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
946 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture will be present through Saturday, before
decreasing for early next week. This will bring chances of showers
and thunderstorms to the mountains and locally into the High Desert
today through Saturday. Below average temperatures expected for
the end of this week into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible satellite at 9 AM was showing areas of low clouds over the
ocean with areas of high clouds moving east to west across the area.
The 12Z sounding from NKX was showing 1.44 inches of precipitable
water. ECMWF ensemble output shows precipitable water values peaking
this afternoon, decreasing slowly on Friday, with a greater
decrease for Saturday and Sunday. Showers and potentially a
thunderstorm or two may develop this afternoon over the mountains.
Most of the convection looks to stay elevated, which translates
to limited impacts at the surface, especially when it comes to
rainfall. The reasonable worst case scenario rainfall rate for
this afternoon is 0.40 inches per hour, with those amounts
expected to be quite isolated and in the mountains if they do
occur. An upper level low will move north and east from Baja into
southeastern California overnight. This could generate some light
showers in and west of the mountains overnight and early Friday
morning. A few lightning strikes may occur, but overall no impacts
expected.

Even with some decrease in precipitable water Friday, thunderstorm
chances look higher due to better diurnal heating Friday afternoon.
High resolutions model guidance is indicating thunderstorms
developing over the mountains and locally into the High Desert.
Areas of moderate to heavy rain look more likely with thunderstorm
activity Friday afternoon. Rainfall rates are expected to be 0.30
to 0.50 inches per hour, locally up to 0.75 inches. Frequent
lightning and areas of flooding look to be the main impacts.

High resolution guidance is indicating isolated lighter showers may
develop over the mountains Saturday afternoon, with peak rainfall
rates around 0.25 inches per hour. Dry conditions are expected to
return Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.

High temperatures for today and Friday will be a few degrees cooler
for the deserts with today the likely cooler day. Warming is
expected for the deserts Saturday. The deserts will warm a few more
degrees on Sunday with most areas a few degrees cooler for early
next week. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into
portions of the western valleys late each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
171645Z....Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10K ft MSL continuing
into the afternoon in the valleys and VCTY KSAN. but likely more
widespread than tonight, with similar bases will push ashore after
18/02Z. Highest confidence in BKN-OVC cigs will be across San Diego
County. Otherwise, 15-20% chance for thunderstorms and rain showers
to move westwards off the mountains into the eastern valleys 18-01Z
today.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds 10000-15000 feet today. ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA over the mtns after 18Z today, most rain showers elevated.
Highest chances through late this afternoon, but an isolated storm
is possible overnight. Associated wind gusts, UDDFS, and VIS
restrictions possible with any storm that develops.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A moderate period south-southwesterly swell (2-3 feet at 15-16
seconds) will continue to generate elevated surf and a high risk of
rip currents through today. Surf of 3-5 feet expected with sets to 6
feet possible, primarily on southerly facing beaches. Swell and surf
will begin to lower on Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...APR