Midland, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS65 KPSR 131110
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 AM MST Sun Apr 13 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over the region, promoting well above
normal temperatures with triple digit numbers possible this
afternoon in few locations. A series of weather systems will lead to
a slight cooling trend for the region but temperatures overall will
remain above normal through the middle of next week. Fire weather
remains a concern over the higher terrains as winds will begin to
increase this afternoon along with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced upper level moisture from a trouging feature in the Eastern
Pacific off the southern California coast is resulting in some
scattered to broken high clouds streaming in from the southwest
across eastern portions of forecast area early this morning. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies will continue pass across the region through
early this upcoming work week as vort lobes rotate around this
troughing feature. With increased cloudiness and mid-level heights
falling across the Desert Southwest, expect cooler temperatures by
around five degrees today and extending through early this upcoming
work week. Despite these cooler temperatures, highs will still run 5-
10 degrees above normal.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance are coming into better agreement
of the weather pattern across western CONUS through the middle of
this week. The offshore trough will migrate eastward, with a more
potent shortwave reaching into southwestern Arizona late Monday into
early Tuesday morning. This trough will bring some better mid-level
moisture, but due to the very dry lower levels of the troposphere,
mostly virga to light shower activity is currently the expectation
for western to central Arizona through Tuesday morning. Despite
these changes in the weather pattern, deterministic NBM highs keep
lower deserts in the upper 80s to lower 90s through mid-week, which
would remain above normal levels.

After these (at most) light showers lift north of the region going
into Tuesday night, skies should clear through Thursday. However,
uncertainty in the forecast grows significantly late week due to a
split between a more progressive versus amplified Pacific Northwest
trough that could impact the region through this upcoming weekend.
While influences of the Eastern Pacific trough will be felt to a
certain degree with at least some cooler temperatures late week, an
amplified Pacific Northwest trough could result in much cooler
temperatures, as indicated by the large spread (10-15 degrees)
between the interquartile ranges of the NBM high temperatures for
the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Ensembles remain split around
50/50 with these pattern evolutions. A more progressive pattern will
result in some cooler (near normal) temperatures, while a more
amplified pattern would result in much cooler (below to considerably
below normal) temperatures as well as increasing precipitation
chances as early as Friday and extending through the weekend
depending on how long this trough may linger across the Desert
Southwest. Current NBM PoP`s represent something in the middle,
where there`s increasing chances generally 15-30%, with highest
chances favoring typical upslope areas Friday and Saturday. Stay
tuned for future updates as the pattern evolution late this week
come more into alignment over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1110Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Monday morning under
periods of thicker high cirrus decks. Timing of the typical daily
wind shifts will be similar to the past 24 hours with some minor
variability during the directional transitions. A few occasional
late afternoon gusts 15-20kt will be possible around the Phoenix
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for today across the higher
terrain areas of eastern Maricopa and central to southern Gila
County due to critical fire weather conditions, where very low
minimum RH`s around 5% combine with winds gusting 25-35 mph. Winds
will relax going into Monday, with slight RH improvements (minimum`s
around 10%, with poor to fair overnight recoveries), but areas of
elevated fire weather conditions may continue through the middle of
this week as periods of enhanced breeziness also appear likely.
Seasonably warm conditions will persist through the middle of the
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for AZZ133.

CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Young