Mariposa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS66 KHNX 290222
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1252 PM PST Sat Dec 28 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Another storm is expected to bring chances of more
precipitation to the area on Sunday. There is a 45% to 75%
chance of at least 6 inches of snow in the the Sierra Nevada
above 7,500 feet at Yosemite National Park through Monday
morning.

2. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 PM Sunday through 5 AM
Monday at the Mojave Slopes of Kern County due to wind gusts
of 50 mph.

3.  Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail for
most of next week under a ridge of high pressure.

4. High pressure pattern with recent precip will allow for Tule
Fog formation next week in the Central Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With the Tule Fog finally mixing out across the valley this
morning, a stratus deck remains across parts of the valley,
however it is eroding too. High clouds from upper level moisture
continue to push from Northwest to Southeast this afternoon.
Upper level cloud cover ahead of an upper level disturbance
will continue through the evening hours. Cloud cover will
increase significantly overnight as moisture makes its way over
Central California.

High resolution model guidance is showing a chance for fog
formation tonight, which isn`t surprising considering the recent
rainfall and the ridge pattern aloft. However, some mixing ahead
of the upper disturbance make fog forecasting difficult for
Sunday morning. The 12z HREF shows about a 40% to 70% chance of
visibility being less than 1/4 of a mile for the San Joaquin
south of Madera County. So if we do see fog, the coverage may
not be quite as widespread as it was this morning. Fog chances
Madera County and northward are only in the 10-20% range per the
HREF.

In terms of the rain and snow potential, most of that is
projected to occur midday on Sunday. The most likely
opportunity for precip will be between 10 AM and 4 PM Sunday,
with showers lingering in the evening hours. Snow levels will be
high on Sunday morning, around 7,500 feet, which confines the
impacts to the high Sierra. Rain/snow will also be confined to
areas Fresno County and northward due to the high pressure ridge
steering the disturbance on the northern periphery of our
forecast area. Only a few hundredths of an inch of rain are
forecast in the valley tomorrow. In the Sierra Nevada above
7,500 feet north of Fresno County, several inches of snow are
conceivable. WPC probabilistic guidance shows a 45-75% chance
of 6 inches of snow or greater in the high Sierra through YNP.
This snow will taper off in the evening on Sunday. Precip across
the region will end by early Monday morning with some light
showers on the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains
concluding the event.


Wind will be a prolonged impact through and below pass level in
Kern County. An appreciable onshore gradient will allow for
gusts of 50 mph through the lee slopes of the Tehachapi
Mountains, especially tomorrow evening. A Wind Advisory is in
effect from 1 PM Sunday through 5 AM Monday at the Mojave
Slopes of Kern County accordingly.

Calm conditions are forecast across the region for the rest of
the week due to high pressure aloft. However, this does mean
that impacts from morning Tule Fog are likely to occur. Recent
ground moisture from rain and high pressure aloft with a low sun
angle are a recipe for Tule Fog, and all three of those
conditions are coming together next week. So be on the lookout
on your morning commute next week as fog conditions appear to be
quite favorable in the San Joaquin Valley.



&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions through 05z Sunday across the Central California
Interior, with a return to IFR conditions after 05z Sunday in
the San Joaquin Valley due to fog through 18z Sunday. IFR
mountain obscuration in the Sierra Nevada in showers after 15z
Sunday.



&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/28/2024 14:50
EXPIRES: 12/29/2024 23:59

On Sunday December 29 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National
Park and Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 5 AM PST Monday for CAZ338.
&&

$$

ab

weather.gov/hanford