Macdoel, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

349
FXUS66 KMFR 160001
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
501 PM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the
forecast area. The exception is along the coast from about Gold
Beach south and around Coos Bay where marine stratus is present.
Also a few cumulus buildups are showing up in extreme souther Modoc
County.

Mid level moisture will move up from the south ahead of the upper
low and could sneak into portions of our northern California
counties (Siskiyou and Modoc) late this afternoon and evening along
with marginal instability. An isolated thunderstorm or two is not
out of the question in portions of southern Siskiyou county and from
about Mount Shasta east. Any storms that develop will tend to move
east to northeast, therefore areas east of Mount Shasta could also
see an isolated storm or two.

Any storms from Tuesday afternoon will end early Tuesday evening
with dry weather expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, there`s pretty good agreement the incoming inside slider
(upper trough) dropping in from the north will be a bigger play
maker in terms of thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The net result is mid level moisture will be south of the
area with the mid levels drier over our forecast area. Therefore the
concern for isolated storms while not zero, are pretty much non-
existent and have been removed from the forecast.  The upper trough
will bring gusty breezes east ofthe Cascades in the afternoon and
early evening hours Wednesday along with cooler afternoon
temperatures for the interior.

The upper trough will drop south into our area Wednesday night into
Thursday. The trajectory of the upper trough is one that does not
typically result in precipitation, but will bring a cooler and drier
air mass with moderate to occasionally strong winds east of the
Cascades Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Breezy winds are
also likely for the westside valleys Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday evening.

Friday and Saturday will be dry with afternoon temperatures warming
up some, and will be above seasonal norms as the upper trough from
Thursday digs south and bringing a dry east to northeast flow over
the area. We can expect gusty afternoon and early evening breezes
east of the Cascades and the higher terrain west of the Cascades.
Also gusty breezes are likely for the interior westside valleys.

Saturday, a weak upper trough will move into the area, but the main
effect from this will be cooler afternoon temperatures, and more
cloud cover. The operational models hint at some light precipitation
along the coast and north ofthe Umpqua Divide Saturday. Some of the
ECMWF individual ensemble members show very light (basically trace
amounts) of precipitation, and all of the GFS individual ensemble
members show a dry solution.

Weak troughiness remains over the area Sunday into early next week.
It`s likely to remain dry, but it will be cooler with gusty breezes
in the afternoon. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...IFR and LIFR ceilings continue along parts
of the Oregon coast, with Brookings solidly under marine stratus
while the clouds over North Bend may come and go through the night.
Guidance suggests stratus may develop in the Umpqua Valley as well,
but confidence is low to moderate for that. Possible timing is
included in the TAF forecast for Roseburg. Anything that develops in
the Umpqua Valley should clear out by Wednesday morning, while there
are signs the Oregon coast may clear up near the end of the TAF
period.

Farther inland, isolated showers are developing over the southeast
corner of Modoc county but lightning has stayed farther south. This
instability should decrease overnight. Other areas are expected to
stay at VFR through the TAF period. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, April 15th...A thermal trough
will bring gusty northerly winds and steep to very steep seas to the
coastal waters, with the strongest winds and steepest seas south of
Cape Blanco through Wednesday. Very steep seas are possible as far
north as Cape Arago. Gale gusts are possible from Gold Beach
southward and within 30 NM from shore Wednesday afternoon/evening.
The thermal trough will vary in strength easing back a bit Thursday
into Friday, but with conditions at least remaining hazardous to
small craft. It looks like the thermal trough will re-strengthen
this weekend with strong northerlies again (and a return of possible
gale force winds south of Cape Blanco) along with steep to very
steep seas. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$