Lompoc, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

570
FXUS66 KLOX 101749
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
949 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/829 PM.

It will be mild and dry into early Monday. Night through morning
low clouds and fog will return to the coasts and coastal valleys
Sunday night. A passing weather system will bring locally gusty
winds for early parts of the upcoming week, along with areas of
light rain for Monday afternoon and night north of Point
Conception. It will be drier and warmer later in the week, before
the next weather system affects the region for late week and into
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...10/839 AM.

***UPDATE***

Weak surface pressure gradients, dry air mass, and mostly clear
skies led to frosty morning lows with 30-35 F common for interior
and northern areas with pockets of frost in sheltered southern
valleys.

Main concern through Monday morning is the potential for dense fog
with a shallow marine layer already taking shape. The Central
Coast and southern LA County are the most likely recipients (50-70
percent chance).

Will focus on light rain/drizzle potential for later Monday and
gusty northerly winds developing in the afternoon and shifting
northerly into Monday night into Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Advisory northerly winds are possible (50-70 percent chance) for
prone interior mountains to portions of southern Santa Barbara
County, most notably in the Santa Ynez Range and foothills, maybe
especially Montecito hills area.

***From Previous Discussion***

Not much to talk about for today. A weak ridge and light offshore
flow will keep the low clouds away from everywhere but the beaches
of the Central Coast. Otherwise, it will be mostly sunny to partly
cloudy today as some high clouds drift overhead. Weaker offshore
flow will allow for cooling across the csts/vlys while higher hgts
will bring some warming to the interior. The csts will end up a
little below normal, the vlys near normal and the interior 3 to 5
degrees above normal. Max temps across the csts and vlys will be
mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. There will be some gusty westerly
winds across the nrn LA mtns and Antelope Vly as onshore pressure
gradients peak in the afternoon.

An upper trof with an assoc weak cold front will approach the area
Monday and move through Monday night. The first effect will be to
create a coastal marine cloud layer. The second effect will to
bring a slow increase in mid and high level cloud cover (greatest
north of Pt Conception) and lastly it will kick off a 4 to 6
degree cool down across the entire area. A chance of rain will
develop across Central Coast later in the afternoon. Rain is
likely (60 to 70 percent chc) across the Central Coast in the
evening and a 30 to 40 percent chc of rain will overspread the
area south of Pt Conception later in the evening and overnight.
This will not be much of a rain maker with .05 to .10 of an inch
of rain across the Central Coast (the foothills north of Cambria
could see a quarter inch) South of Pt Conception only a trace to
.05 of an inch is forecast. Snow levels will be around 7000 ft
with no accumulations expected.

Dry NW flow will move over the area on Tuesday as a ridge enters
the state from the west. Cool air moving in behind the front will
bring 5 to 10 degrees of cooling to the interior, while the csts
and vlys see little change as weak offshore balances the cooler
air. Winds will be the main talking point Tuesday. Look for near
advisory level northerly winds through the I-5 corridor in the
morning. The winds will turn to the NE later in the morning and
weaken producing only 15 to 25 mph breezes.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...10/337 AM.

Wednesday looks like the nicest day of the week as high pressure
aloft and weak offshore flow at the sfc combine to bring mostly
sunny skies 5 to 10 degrees of warming. Max temps across the
csts/vlys will be in the upper 60s (beaches) to the lower 80s
(warmest vlys)

And upper trof will approach the area on Thursday and will lower
hgts and switch the offshore flow to onshore. Despite mostly sunny
skies and no marine layer max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees
across the whole area and end up 2 to 4 degrees blo normals
everywhere save for the Antelope Vly.

All mdls still showing the development of a large west coast trof
Friday. This trof will affect the area Friday and Saturday (with a
few outlier solutions continuing into Sunday). There is very
little agreement within the mdl spectrum and confidence in exact
timing and details is low. The best forecast right now calls for
partly to mostly cloudy skies with a slight chc to chc (20 to 40
percent) of rain in each 12 hour period. Cooler for sure with
temps struggling to reach 70 degrees. Despite the longish duration
chc of rain rainfall totals will likely be on the light side - no
more than a quarter inch and very possibly much less.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1748Z.

At 1314Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion up to 1600
ft with a maximum temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA. There is a 10% chance
for VLIFR-IFR cigs/vsbys after 14Z.

Low confidence in KSMX, KSBP, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. Lots of
uncertainty when it comes to cig heights and vsbys tonight, but
low clouds to look become established tonight, especially after
06Z. There is a 30-40% chance for VLIFR cigs/vsbys to establish
tonight.

KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. Lots of uncertainty in timing
and flight category of cigs/vsbys tonight. There is a 40% chance
for OVC001-002 and or vsbys 1/4SM to 1SM between 09Z and 16Z, but
confidence in lowest flight cat is low. No significant east wind
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/855 AM.

For the Outer Waters, there is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds this afternoon thru evening, mostly
from Pt Conception to San Nicolas Island, so they will likely be
too isolated to warrant a SCA. SCA winds are highly likely
(70-80% chance) Mon afternoon thru at least Tue night, with a 30%
chance for GALES (Pt Conception south the San Nicolas Island. Seas
are expected to remain below (SCA) levels thru Mon, before an
abrupt increase to between 11 and 14 ft Tue morning.

In the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, winds should remain below
SCA levels thru Mon morning. There is a 30-50% of SCA conds Mon
thru Wed during the afternoons and evenings, with highest
confidence Monday evening.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 10-20% chance for SCA
level winds this afternoon and evening, with the best chances in
western portions and near Santa Cruz Island. There is greater
confidence (70-80% chance) of more widespread SCA level winds Mon
into Tue morning. There is a chance (30-40%) of GALES Mon
afternoon thru evening. Then

In the Southern Inner Waters, conditions are expected to be below
SCA levels thru Mon morning. There is a 60-70% of pf SCA winds
Mon afternoon thru night in northern and western portions of the
zone. Then, northerly SCA winds coming off the Santa Monica
mountains may reach the Southern Inner Waters from Malibu to Santa
Monica and thru the San Pedro Channel (30% chance) early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox