Lompoc, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

861
FXUS66 KLOX 260046
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
546 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/545 PM.

Marine layer clouds will affect the coast and valleys each night
and morning through this week, otherwise look for mostly clear
skies. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the next few
days, increasing to above normal by late in the week. Gusty winds
are expected each afternoon and evening for the Antelope Valley,
the Interstate 5 Corridor, and southwestern Santa Barbara County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...25/151 PM.

Current satellite imagery showing some residual stratocumulus
clouds across areas south of Point Conception as a deep marine
layer remains in place. Latest ACARS data showing marine layer
depth in the LA Basin around 3400 feet, while 12Z Vandenberg
sounding showed a marine layer depth around 1800 feet. Onshore
pressure gradient remain rather strong this afternoon, with
a 1 PM LAX-DAG gradient of +7 mb.

Minimal day-to-day changes are expected through Tuesday, with
most temperatures either few degrees below normal or near normal.
A small pop up ridge has resulted in a few degrees of warming
today for most areas, except for the coasts and valleys of LA and
Ventura Counties where temperatures show little change from
yesterday. On Monday, another weak trough will briefly knock
temperatures back down a few degrees across the far interior
(including the Antelope Valley, Paso Robles, and inland
mountains). By mid week, highs everywhere will be within a few
degrees of normal.

Strong onshore flow will continue to dominate the weather
pattern, resulting in consistent night though morning `May Gray`
marine layer clouds and fog for most of the coasts and valleys.
Clouds may linger at portions of the coasts into the afternoon
today, especially for LA County beaches and the portion of the
Central Coast near Point Arguello.

Additionally, the strong onshore surface pressure gradients will
continue to fuel areas of gusty winds across the interior,
including the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills. Northwest
to southwest gusts of 25 to 40 mph (isolated gusts to 45 mph) are
expected to be common for the Antelope Valley and Interstate 5
Corridor this afternoon through Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds
will also continue late this afternoon into tonight across
southwestern Santa Barbara County. Wind Advisories have been
issued for southwest Santa Barbara county (mainly from Gaviota to
San Marcos Pass) where gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common.
Latest UCSB WRF model data showing most enhanced winds tonight for
Gaviota/Refugio where localized gusts up to 55 mph will be
possible. Gusty northwest winds will once again pick up by late
Monday afternoon into Monday night, where wind advisories will
likely be needed again from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...25/147 PM.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a cutoff low pressure system will
slide south, centered over the Pacific Ocean well to the west of
the SoCal coastline. The low is likely to stall to the south of
SoCal off the coast of Baja California on Friday, as a ridge of
high pressure strengthens across the west coast. Temperatures
are expected to be on the warm side Thursday through Saturday
due to building heights and weakening onshore flow, although
there is still moderate uncertainty in the extent of heat due to
the positioning and speed of the upper level cutoff low pressure
system off the coast. While ensemble solutions are showing a wide
range of possible outcomes, they tend to agree that Friday will be
the hottest day, especially over the interior. Friday
highs are likely to be in the 70s at the beaches, 80s for the
inland coastal plains and coastal valleys, and 90s to around 100
degrees for the deserts, lower mountains and interior valleys.

Due to the unpredictable nature of cutoff lows, there is around a
15 percent chance of high temperatures approaching or breaking a
calendar daytime record for Friday across the interior valley and
desert areas away from the marine layer clouds. Paso Robles and
Ojai are some of the sites that have the greatest chance of
reaching temperatures significantly above normal. A heat advisory
may need to be considered for Friday across some of the interior
areas as we draw closer to the event.

While the marine layer clouds are likely to be persistent during
the extended period. the marine layer will likely become quite
shallow by Friday, with low clouds and fog mostly confined to
the coastal plain. The latest deterministic EC/GFS models and
several ensemble solutions show the closed low now turning more to
the northeast towards Southern California next weekend. As a
result, there is a 10-15 percent chance of showers or
thunderstorms impacting Ventura and LA counties by Saturday
afternoon or Sunday, with the highest probabilities favoring the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0044Z.

At 0013Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 5500 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival of cigs tonight
may be off +/- 2 hours, along with minimum flight cats off by
one. At KSBP 40-50% chance no low clouds form tonight. There is a
30% chance of IFR cigs at KOXR and KCMA from 06Z to 16Z Mon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival of cigs
tonight could be off by +/- 2 hours from fcst time of 06Z. There
is a 20% chance of IFR cigs OVC008-010 after 06Z Mon. High
confidence that any east wind component will be under 8 kt.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival of cigs
tonight could be +/- 2 hours from current fcst. There is a 30%
chance for OVC008-010 from 08Z to 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/157 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds through Memorial Day weekend and into early
Tuesday, with brief lulls possible each morning. Local gusts to 35
kts may occur through this evening in the northeastern Outer
Waters as well as around Point Conception south to San Nicolas
Island. Seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
mid-week, however, there could be localized SCA level seas at
times, with highest chances Monday evening into Tuesday.
Thereafter, moderate chances for SCA winds through Friday, and
seas may build to SCA levels by Thursday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, moderate confidence
in SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Memorial Day
Weekend (60-80% chance). Local gusts to 35 kt may occur this
afternoon and evening. Thereafter, there is a low to moderate
chance of SCA winds on Tuesday and Wednesday during the afternoon
and evening hours. Seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through at least mid-week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA
level winds across the western and southern portions of the
Channel, including the waters around the Channel Islands, each
afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.
Much lower chances on Tuesday. There is a 60% chance of SCA winds
across western and southern portions on Wednesday. Seas are
expected to remain below SCA criteria through the work week.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
this weekend. Local gusts up to 20 kt may occur in the afternoon
through evenings Monday near Malibu and in the far western
portion of the zone. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through at least mid-week. However, there
is a moderate chance of SCA level winds for far western portions
of PZZ655 and across the waters near Anacapa Island during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Tuesday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Black/Lewis/Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox