Independence, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS65 KVEF 270229
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
729 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching system will result in showers and
mountain snow this afternoon through Sunday, especially across Inyo
and San Bernardino Counties and the southern Great Basin.
Accumulating snow is most likely across the Eastern Sierra, with
lighter snow expected across the mountains of the Southern Great
Basin. This system will also maintain gusty southwesterly winds
through this evening, and result in below normal temperatures
through Sunday. A warming and drying trend begins Monday, with above
normal temperatures returning midweek ahead of another potential
system next weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...Winds have been decreasing over the Lake Mead/Lake Mohave
zones early this evening. Not seeing any reason to extend the Wind
Advisory there, but will keep an eye out for any stronger winds.
Elsewhere, precip has been occurring in Esmeralda and northern Inyo
counties as expected, so no update needed for that reason either.
Still looking at temperature trends, which are complex due to the
precip. Plan to update at or shortly after 8 PM for the Wind
Advisory.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
355 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.

Clouds are currently overspreading the region from the west, ahead
of a cutoff low currently anchored over Central California. As
this low slowly translates eastward, southwesterly flow aloft will
be maintained through tonight, yielding continued breezy to windy
conditions, especially across western areas. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect through late evening for Death Valley, the
western Mojave Desert, and Morongo Basin, where wind gusts are
expected to reach around 40 mph. Of additional concern is the
Lower Colorado River Valley from Lake Mohave to Lake Mead, where
southerly winds channeled through the valley are expected to reach
20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, yielding 1 to 3 foot wave
heights. Thus, boaters and recreationalists will need to exercise
caution, and a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through this
evening.

As the aforementioned low approaches, increased midlevel moisture
and ascent will result in an uptick in precipitation chances,
especially this afternoon through tonight from the Eastern Sierra
across the southern Great Basin, with additional showers possible
further south across San Bernardino County and the higher
elevations of the Spring Mountains. Given steepening lapse rates,
and in spite of paltry instability (CAPE on the order of around
50-100 J/kg), a few thunderstorms are also possible, especially
across northern Inyo County eastward across Esmeralda, Nye, and
Lincoln Counties. While overall QPF remains low, under a tenth of
an inch, across lower elevations, local enhancements to
precipitation rate will be possible with convective elements. In
the mountains, the snow level this afternoon begins around
6000-6500ft, and will drop to around 5000-5500ft by Sunday. Thus,
mountain areas are likely to see light snow accumulations, with
the greatest amounts of around 7-9 inches expected across the
Sierra Crest, and largely remaining around 3-5 inches elsewhere.
Given expected snow totals, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for the Eastern Sierra through late Sunday morning.

The low is progged to move overhead late tonight through Sunday,
with lingering precipitation expected Sunday afternoon,
particularly across the southern Great Basin in closer proximity
to the core of the low. Elsewhere, a drying trend will begin,
though temperatures Sunday will be the coldest of the forecast.
Highs Sunday afternoon are expected to top out around 5 to 10
degrees below normal for most, with some locations across the
highest elevations not making it out of the 30s and 40s. These
cooler than normal temperatures will carry into Sunday night, with
lows dipping into the 40s and 50s for most, with 20s and 30s in
the mountains.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The trough axis remains over the southwestern United States on
Monday, helping to maintain near average temperatures for this time
of year. Afterwards, the trough moves east and high pressure builds
Tuesday onwards. This pattern change will send highs back into above
normal territory with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday
and Friday. This includes highs in the upper 80s for Las Vegas and
in the 90s for the Colorado River Valley. Other than increasing
temperatures, light winds and dry conditions are expected.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Southwest gusts between 25 and 30 knots will continue into the
evening (03Z). After that, winds will diminish somewhat, although
gusts of 20 to 25 knots will still be possible well into the
overnight period.  Gusts will end temporarily before sunrise only to
redevelop by mid-morning, and then persist through tomorrow
afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail in the valley through the
TAF period with only FEW to SCT clouds with bases remaining AOA
12kft AGL. Northwest of the valley along the Beatty corridor,
scattered showers and a few isolated thundershowers will be possible
after 00Z, with the threat persisting into Sunday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described for Harry
Reid above, except a period of light and variable winds remains
possible at VGT from late tonight (after 10Z)  into tomorrow morning
(15Z).  At KBIH, gusty southerly winds will shift around to the
north and decrease by sunset. VCSH is expected through most of the
night, with light showers possible at the terminal (best time
between 00Z and 04Z). Winds will remain northerly tomorrow with
speeds remaining 15 knots or less.  At KDAG, winds will prevail from
the west, with gust speeds between 35 and 40 kts this evening, and a
few showers are possible near the field for the next few hours. The
west winds will diminish overnight, although gusts to 20 knots will
still remain possible.  Gusty west winds return on Sunday. In the
lower Colorado River Valley, south to southwest winds with
occasional gusts to 30 knots can be expected into the evening,
followed by lighter southerly winds overnight.  Gusty winds return
Sunday, although speeds should be lower than today.  Away from any
areas of precipitation that develop, FEW to SCT clouds are forecast
with bases generally remaining AOA 12kft AGL into tomorrow
afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Morgan
SHORT TERM...Phillipson
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Planz

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