Hilt, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS66 KMFR 242106
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
206 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation and Marine section...


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.AVIATION...24/18Z TAFs...IFR and LIFR conditions along the coast
and into the Coquille Valley this morning will burn back and lift
some today, but may not fully clear with IFR and MVFR persisting in
some locations throughout today. LIFR/IFR conditions return to the
entire coast this evening and will persist through the remainder of
the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail, with some
afternoon breezy winds. -BPN

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.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, June 24, 2025...Winds and seas
are improving today. Some locally gusty winds may persist within 10
nm of shore between Port Orford and Gold Beach through this evening.
Generally, light winds and seas are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
A thermal trough develops Friday into the weekend. Initially, this
may result in gusty winds and steep seas from Cape Blanco south.
Then, models indicate winds may strength and steep wind driven seas
may develop for all areas on the weekend. -Hermansen

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 124 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025/

DISCUSSION...A weak trough overhead has produced a persistent
marine push along the coast, where stratus and fog will continue
throughout the day, before surging back into the coastal valleys
and the Umpqua Basin this evening and tonight. OTherwise, the
forecast area is mostly cloud free, aside from some cumulus
buildup here and there. It should be noted that one or two of the
higher resolution models are producing some light shower activity
this afternoon over northern Klamath and Lake counties, but all
other guidance keeps the area dry. Have left the mention of
showers out of the forecast for this afternoon due to the low
coverage and very low confidence, but it is a non-zero chance that
a few radar returns might pop up over the next several hours.

Today will be the warmer day of the next few, but only by about 5
degrees or so. We will begin to cool off a bit through the rest
of the work week as the weak, but broad trough remains in place.
While the forecast will remain dry, for the most part, and
temperatures are expected to stay around normal for this time of
year. Daily marine layer pushes will continue at the coast and
coastal valleys, and at times may push into the Umpqua Basin, or
even portions of the Rogue and Illinois valleys. The strongest
pushes are expected Wednesday and Thursday mornings, due to the
overhead trough allowing for a thicker marine layer that would
more easily pass over some of the area mountains. Some locations
may not fully clear out of the marine clouds in the afternoons,
especially north of Cape Blanco.

The trough axis will pass overhead Wednesday afternoon, and some
models, namely the NAM, still suggest the possibility of
convection in the Mount Shasta/Medicine Lake area. It does not
appear that atmospheric moisture will be sufficient enough for any
significant convective development, and the NAM is known to
overdue it in situations like this. We will keep an eye on it
nonetheless, just in case, but most likely, we will only see
cumulus fields develop across the area in the afternoon.

Near normal temperatures and dry conditions then continue for the
remainder of the workweek as broad troughing remains in the area,
and we should see daily marine pushes along the coast. Heading
into the weekend, ridging finally begins to nudge into the region,
and the thermal trough is expected to redevelop along our southern
coast. As a result, temperatures will see a quick warm up through
Saturday and Sunday and into early next week, with highs rising
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late June. By Sunday
and/or Monday, high temperatures could reach the triple digits in
the Rogue, Illinois, and Klamath valleys.

As is typical with periods of heat in the region, it will come to
an end with the threat of thunderstorms. With the ridge passing
just to our east and strengthening as it moves over the Rockies, a
trough develops off the coast of California, which then attempts
to move onshore around Monday, taking on a negative tilt as it
does so. This is a classic pattern for convection here, with the
trough tapping into monsoonal moisture from the south, and taking
advantage of the warm surface temperatures and cooler
temperatures aloft to produce instability across the inland
portions of the forecast area. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms has been added to the forecast, mainly along and
east of the Cascades and in northern California, for Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. Should the trough arrive a bit early, Sunday
afternoon may see some convection as well, but the latest runs all
focus on Monday and Tuesday, and so confidence then is much
better. We will also need to keep an eye on the possibility of
convection west of the Cascades, should the moisture make it over
the mountains. -BPN

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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