Heber, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS65 KPSR 091124
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
424 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry conditions will continue over the next week. Below
normal temperatures will warm more towards normal levels by early
next week and remain generally near normal through next week. A
change in the weather pattern may result in more noteworthy weather
conditions by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very quiet and calm weather will persist across the region over
the next week or so. An occluded low centered over the central
Plains continues to slowly meander northeastward and weaken, with
some slight building heights commencing over the Desert Southwest
going through the weekend. Below normal temperatures will warm
more towards seasonal levels going into next week as a result of
the anticipated weather pattern trends.

Progressive/zonal flow looks to continue through next week, as
another trough that digs from the Gulf of Alaska into western
CONUS will pass north of the region, resulting in some slight
cooling through the middle of next week. Otherwise, dry conditions
will persist through the end of next week prior to a more
energetic/amplified trough that will likely cause some more active
weather across the region going into next weekend.

Looking closer at the system late next week, not much has changed
to the trends aside from a slight deepening of the troughing
feature in the cluster/ensemble means going into and through the
weekend as it traverses across the region. Thus, a dry but
increasingly windy scenario remains the highest likelihood at this
point, with a small number of ensemble members suggesting a more
amplified and slower moving trough, which would, at most, bring
some chances for precipitation to higher terrain features across
eastern Arizona next weekend. Thus, a cooling trend can be
expected going into the next weekend at this point, although the
progression speed of this trough would affect timing of the cooler
temperatures. Looking beyond next weekend, ensembles are hinting
at another piece of Arctic energy diving south across western
Canada, suggesting next weekend`s deep trough could persist into
the 8-14 day period, as currently highlighted in the CPC`s below
normal temperature outlook for western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Light winds, mostly at or below 5 kts, are expected at all
terminals through the TAF period. Wind directions will tend to
follow typical diurnal tendencies, but there will be extended
periods of light variability or calm winds at all terminals. SKC
will prevail, with FEW high cirrus tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures will continue today with a gradual warming
trend closer to near normal levels through the weekend and into
early next week. Winds will follow more typical diurnal
upslope/nocturnal drainage components. MinRHs will fall mostly in
a 10-15% range this weekend with readings closer to 25% over
higher terrain of eastern districts. Overnight recoveries tonight
will be better in the eastern districts, mostly between 40-60%
with poor to fair overnight recoveries (around 20-40%) for the
western districts. Overall, dry weather will persist through late
next week, with conditions remaining favorable for any prescribed
burning operations.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Whittock/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Young