Goleta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS66 KLOX 251124
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
424 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...25/321 AM.

Marine layer clouds will affect the coast and valleys each night
and morning through next week, otherwise look for mostly clear
skies. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the next
few days, increasing to above normal by late next week. Gusty
winds are expected in the evening for the Antelope Valley, the
Interstate 5 Corridor, and southwestern Santa Barbara County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...25/317 AM.

Minimal day-to-day changes are expected through Tuesday, with
most temperatures either few degrees below normal or near normal.
A small pop up ridge will result in a couple degrees of warming,
except for the coasts and valleys of LA and Ventura Counties where
temperatures will change very little. Monday another weak trough
will briefly knock temperatures back down a few degrees across the
far interior (including the Antelope Valley, Paso Robles, and
inland mountains). By mid next week, highs everywhere will be
within a few degrees of normal.

Strong onshore flow will continue to dominate the weather
pattern, resulting in consistent overnight-to-morning `May Gray`
marine layer clouds and fog for most of the coasts and valleys.
Clouds may linger at the coasts into the afternoon today,
especially for LA County beaches and the portion of the Central
Coast near Point Arguello.

Additionally, the strong onshore surface pressure gradients will
continue to fuel areas of gusty winds across the interior,
including the Antelope Valley and foothills. Northwest to
southwest gusts of 25 to 40 mph (isolated gusts to 45 mph) are
expected to be common for the Antelope Valley and Interstate 5
Corridor late this afternoon through tonight. Sundowner Winds will
also continue in the evenings across southwestern Santa Barbara
County. Wind Advisories are likely to be issued for Sundowners
each evening through at least Monday night, as northerly to
northwesterly gusts of 30 to 50 mph are expected.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...25/353 AM.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, mostly
within a few degrees of warming. Wednesday night into Thursday, a
cutoff low pressure system will slide south, centered over the
Pacific Ocean well to the west of the SoCal coastline. The low is
likely to stall to the south of SoCal off the coast of Baja
California into the upcoming weekend. This nearby low will serve
to moderate the impacts of a large scale strong ridge of high
pressure expected to set up over the west coast. Thus temperatures
are likely to be on the warm side across the region Thursday
through Saturday, but are favored to peak Friday at only around 6
to 12 degrees above normal. Friday highs are likely to be in the
70s at the beaches, 80s for the inland coastal plains and coastal
valleys, and up to around 100 degrees for the deserts and
interior valleys.

Due to the unpredictable nature of cutoff lows, there is around a
15 percent chance to near and/or break a few calender day
temperature records for valley and desert areas away from marine
layer clouds. Paso Robles and Ojai are some of the sites that have
the greatest chance of reaching temperatures significantly above
normal.

Onshore flow is expected to prevail each day, with typical
diurnal wind patterns, and overnight to morning marine layer
clouds. The marine layer will become quite shallow by Friday and
be largely confined to the beaches and coastal plains.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1123Z.

At 0649Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4700 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 40% chance of no low clouds
this morning. Flight cat may be off by one cat if cigs arrive.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Dissipation of cigs could
be off +/- 2 hours, and SCT cigs may linger at LA County coastal
sites this afternoon. Arrival of cigs tonight be may be off +/- 3
hours. Minimum flight cat may be off by one cat. Most uncertainty
in minimum flight cat is after 04Z tonight. There is a 30% chance
of no clouds at KSBP tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Transition to SCT cigs may be
off +/- 1 hour, but SCT cigs may linger into the afternoon.
Arrival of cigs tonight could be within +/- 3 hours from fcst.
Cigs tonight should be OVC012-018, but there is a 10% chance for
OVC008-010. Good confidence that any east wind component will be
under 7 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Dissipation of cigs could
be off +/- 2 hours and arrival tonight could be +/- 3 hours from
fcst. There is a 20% chance for OVC008-010 after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/153 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds through Memorial Day weekend and into early
Tuesday, with brief lulls possible each morning. Local gusts to 35
kts may occur this afternoon and evening in the northeastern Outer
Waters as well as around Point Conception south to San Nicolas
Island. Seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
mid- week, however, there could be localized SCA level seas at
times, with highest chances Monday evening into Tuesday.
Thereafter, moderate chances for SCA winds through Friday, and
seas may build to SCA levels by Thursday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, moderate confidence
in SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Memorial Day
Weekend (60-80% chance). Local gusts to 35 kt may occur this
afternoon and evening. Seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through at least mid-week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA
level winds across the western and southern portions of the
Channel, including the waters around the Channel Islands, each
afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.
Lower chances exist Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
this weekend. Local gusts up to 20 kt may occur in the afternoon
through evenings Monday near Malibu and in the far western
portion of the zone. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through at least mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...25/309 AM.

A long period south swell will bring elevated surf conditions up
to 6 feet along with a high risk for hazardous rip currents for
south facing beaches through the remainder of Memorial Day
Weekend.

Considering the expected high beach attendance this weekend,
ocean rescues may be numerous. If you plan on swimming in the
ocean, be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

Minor nuisance flooding may occur at susceptible beaches during
high tide in the evening to late night hours through Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Monday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Gomberg
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Sirard/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox