Gilroy, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

168
FXUS66 KMTR 201858
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1158 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A slight warming trend will continue through Monday before
cool and cloudy weather returns mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Stratus is starting to dissipate across the Bay Area and Central
Coast at a faster pace this morning than the past few days.
Stratus is expected to continue clearing through the remainder of
the morning with clear conditions expected by this afternoon.
Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s across the interior
and upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. No changes to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The Ft. Ord profiler is measuring a relatively deep marine layer
around 2,000 feet. This is keeping widespread stratus across the
lower elevations of the Bay Area and the Central Coast. High dew
points and light winds will likely bring areas of fog across the
region later this morning, especially in the North Bay Valleys. We
are waiting to see the visibility start dropping, but don`t be
surprised if a dense fog advisory is issued in the next few hours.
The skies will clear in the afternoon as the stratus mixes out
and marine layer compresses. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s
in the warmer inland areas, with upper 50s to low 60s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Zonal flow will persist from Monday through Tuesday, with quiet
weather and warmer than normal temperatures expected. High surface
pressure will keep the marine layer compressed to around 500 feet
as 850 mb temps rise to around 14C. This will allow most areas
away from the immediate coast to reach 5-10 degrees above normal.
Many of the warmer areas will have minor HeatRisk. This level is
hazardous only to those extremely sensitive to heat such as the
elderly and those living outside. Decent cooling at night will
allow for some relief if you are able to open a window. A short
wave trough will approach the coast early Wednesday, followed by a
much deeper trough on Friday. This pattern change will bring
cooler, cloudier conditions. There is still a chance for rain late
week, but the probability has decreased quite a bit in the latest
update. Why the change? The trough still has broad support across
the guidance envelope, however the moisture tap looks worse. The
GEFS mean probability of IVT>150 has decreased from 40% to 20%
from the 12Z to 00Z run. There`s still a 0% chance of IVT
exceeding 250 in both the GEFS and ECMWF EPS ensembles. In other
words, the chance for light rain Fri-Sat is decreasing, and there
continues to be no real chance for anything more substantial.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Stratus continues to clear this morning, with coastal communities and
the North Bay Valleys taking the longest to dissipate. Expect VFR
conditions at most sites within a few hours and then persisting into
the early evening. Guidance shows another intrusion of the marine
layer tonight, which will likely impact the coastal KSFO, KOAK,
KHAF, KMRY, and KSNS with MVFR to IFR cigs possible. North Bay sites
show a mix of stratus and mixed visibilities, though confidence is a
touch lower on how low the vis could fall. Trended towards IFR cig
and vis for these sites. Expect another round of clearing by mid to
late tomorrow morning with any development.

Vicinity of SFO... Stratus has more or less cleared this morning,
with only a few clouds hanging around. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail through the evening, with uptick breezy west to west-
northwesterly winds of 10-15kt possible. Winds should fall below
10kt before 06Z, with MVFR cigs returning during the early overnight
hours. Leaned towards the persistence forecast, which should have
MVFR cigs eroding just before or around 18Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies around much of the Monterey Bay
region this morning, with VFR conditions likely prevailing through
the early evening. Then MVFR to IFR cigs are expected overnight with
skies clearing by mid to late morning tomorrow. &&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 927 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Breezy to gusty north/northwest winds are building in the northern
waters along with building north swell. Winds look to increase and
spread across the outer waters into the work week. The gusty
northerly winds look to become more widespread into the mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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