Fairfax, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS66 KMTR 241619
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
919 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The forecast will be set to repeat with coastal clouds, fog, cool
overnights, and warm days on tap. The coastal clouds and fog will
advance inland each night and will mix out there during the morning,
leading to sunny interior skies for the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The marine layer spread well inland this morning with a depth up
to around 2000 feet. Low clouds are slowly retreating but still
cover much of the North Bay valleys as of 9 am. Enough drizzle
to tip the bucket at 0.01 in the City this morning at our official
climate site. Low clouds will slowly peel back towards the coast
through midday. The northerly and southerly gradients down the
coast are nearly flat but the SFO-Sac is 2.5 mb with sustained 23
kt winds being reported at Travis AFB keeping a nice Delta breeze
going. Synoptic pattern shows an upper trough over Nevada with
weak shortwave ridge trying to build over Northern California
later tonight into Weds. Net result should be little overall
change in the marine layer depth and corresponding temperature
pattern that will feature 60s coast, 70s bayside and mainly 80s
inland. Day over day changes remain minimal through at least
Thursday with a modest inland warming trend as we head into the
weekend as temps warm back into the mid 90s inland but nothing
excessively hot for the last week of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Satellite imagery has been mesmerizing tonight as we watch the
stratus slink through the interior valleys of the Bay Area and
Central Coast. Its tendrils have seeped deeply into the North Bay,
penetrated most of the Central Coast, and is infiltrating the the
East and South Bay region. The question for the rest of the morning
is how much further inland will the stratus make it? Confidence is
on the lower end for a full intrusion into Napa County and the
interior East Bay, but there is some signal for that occuring given
we have started to see pockets of stratus form once the high clouds
have moved out of the region. This might occur between 3AM-5AM and
then hold for a few hours before mixing out by mid to late morning.
A typical summer day is then expected, with sunny skies inland,
stratus hugging oceanside coastal communities. The stratus will make
another return tonight and should have similar foot print.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Quasi zonal flow is expected midweek, with weak upper level
troughing returning for the weekend. High temperatures will have a
slight warming trend through this period, especially for interior
locations where we go from the upper 80s to low 90s to low to mid
90s by the weekend. Coastal communities will remain cooler,
especially if confined to areas of stratus where highs will vary
from the upper 50s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-MVFR at the terminals. The pattern
will generally remain unchanged through the TAF period with the
marine layer currently being observed at 1,600 feet on the Fort Ord
profiler, as such a persistence forecast is on tap for the most
part. Shortwave ridging yesterday seems to be why the marine layer
is as robust as it is this morning. Unfortunately that translates to
lower confidence on widespread VFR being achieved at all today,
particularly for bayshore and coastal terminals. If stratus does
retreat, it will stick close to the coast and make an early
return tonight. Onshore winds will prevail through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. Moderate
confidence on the terminal improving to VFR by late-morning;
however, HREF gives a 40% chance that sub-VFR ceilings will linger
through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF
period.

SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely
clear from south to north by late-morning; however, low stratus
clouds may linger between OAK, SFO, and northward through the Golden
Gate Bridge through the TAF period. Low stratus clouds will filter
in by 00Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Brief VFR is expected by
this afternoon with IFR/LIFR conditions expected again tonight.
Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 454 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Fresh northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will prevail  today.
Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT
     Wednesday for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RWW
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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