Escondido, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS66 KSGX 180338
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
838 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture will be present through Saturday, with dry
conditions returning early next week. This will bring chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and locally into the
High Desert through Saturday. Below average temperatures expected
for the end of this week into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening update...
A few thunderstorms developed over the San Diego County and
Riverside County mountains this afternoon with a few light showers
elsewhere. The thunderstorms have since dissipated. A band of
light showers continues across northern Baja and far southern San
Diego County, though there have been no reports of precipitation
reaching the surface. The low will continue to lift north tonight.
Elevated CAPE on the 00Z KNKX sounding was less than 150 J/kg.
Weak instability with moisture wrapping around the north side of
the low will shift towards Orange County overnight into Friday
morning. While there is a 15-20% chance of showers overnight,
thunderstorm chances will generally be less than 10%. No changes
to the forecast this evening.

Previous discussion...
Even with some decrease in precipitable water Friday, thunderstorm
chances look higher due to better diurnal heating Friday afternoon.
High resolutions model guidance is indicating thunderstorms
developing over the mountains and locally into the High Desert.
Areas of moderate to heavy rain look more likely with thunderstorm
activity Friday. Rainfall rates are expected to be 0.30 to 0.50
inches per hour, locally up to 0.75 inches an hour. Frequent
lightning, locally gusty winds, and areas of flooding look to be the
main impacts.

High resolution guidance is indicating isolated lighter showers and
thunderstorms may develop over the mountains Saturday afternoon, but
peak rainfall rates look to be around 0.25 inches per hour. Dry
conditions are expected to return Sunday and continue into the
middle of next week.

High temperatures for Friday will be a few degrees cooler west of
the mountains and a few degrees warmer in the deserts. Warming will
continue for the deserts into Sunday. Even with the warming through
Sunday, high temperatures for the deserts and elsewhere are expected
to be near to slightly below average for this time of year. Night
and morning coastal low clouds will spread into portions of the
western valleys late each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
180315Z....Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10K ft will continue
to skirt across the region going into the overnight hours. Low level
cigs will return across areas up to 15 miles inland, mainly after
06Z. Highest confidence in BKN-OVC cigs will be across San Diego
County, closer to 08Z VCTY KSNA. Cigs clearing to the coast 17-19Z
with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10K ft MSL with storm chances more confined
to the Inland Empire tomorrow afternoon, especially VCTY KSBD. Low
clouds will begin to regather and fill back in late tomorrow
evening, mainly after 06Z, with a slight increase in cloud base
heights from where they will be tonight.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds 10000-15000 feet throughout the
overnight hours. Iso to sct SHRA and TSTMs will develop again over
the mountains tomorrow afternoon, with bases around 7K to 8K feet
MSL. Associated wind gusts, UDDFS, and VIS restrictions possible
with any storm that develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Very slight chance of thunderstorms (5 to 10 percent probability)
across the inner coastal waters through tonight. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine weather expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
A moderate period south-southwesterly swell (2-3 feet at 15-16
seconds) will continue to generate elevated surf and a high risk of
rip currents through tonight. Surf of 3-5 feet expected with sets to
6 feet possible, primarily on southerly facing beaches. Swell and
surf will begin to lower on Friday night. Very slight chance (5 to
10 percent probability) of lightning and thunderstorms at or near
the beaches through tonight.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Stewey