Dockweiler, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS66 KLOX 010624
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1124 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...31/855 PM.

Cooler but more humid conditions this weekend as tropical
moisture moves over the region, with a chance for showers or a
thunderstorm. Near normal conditions will follow Monday and
Tuesday, with a modest warm up towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...31/855 PM.

Active thunderstorm complex developed late this afternoon
and evening across the mountains of Ventura and Santa Barbara
counties. A Google Earth image indicated an impressive
2500 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes with this activity, with a
few strikes even reaching the Santa Ynez Valley and Santa Barbara
south coast. A few special weather statements were issued for
this strong thunderstorm activity, as well as 1 Severe
Thunderstorm Warning. Environmental conditions supported damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph and hail size of one inch with this severe
thunderstorm warning that occurred over the rural mountain areas,
as echo tops reached an impressive 50,000 feet. This strong
thunderstorm activity occurred with an embedded vort max in the
area of greatest instability as the models indicated lifted index
values of -6 to -8 and MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg over the
mountains of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

As of 830 pm, the thunderstorm activity has diminished for the
time being across Santa Barbara county, but radar is indicating
some light showers or sprinkles starting to occur across eastern
LA county and areas to the south and east. As the moisture
continues to increase across the area overnight, 20-30 percent
Pops for areas south of Point Conception tonight-Sunday looks
on track with current pattern. 00Z NAM model cross section does
show another weak upper level impulse overnight across LA
county interacting with the moisture, so will introduce a
slight chance of elevated thunderstorms tonight for LA county as
a result. If any thunderstorms were to develop tonight
across LA county, there could be some brief heavy downpours
due to the increase in moisture. However, isolated dry
lightning strikes will still be possible on the periphery
of storms. By Sunday afternoon, looking for slight chance of
thunderstorms to be confined mostly to the mountains of
LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley.

Otherwise, low clouds and fog making a return to coastal
areas tonight, spreading locally into some of the coastal
valleys. With a fairly low and strong inversion still in
place, could see some patchy dense fog developing tonight.

*** From previous discussion ***

This high PW air mass will continue into Sunday, but will start to
shift to the east, confining most of the activity east of Ventura
County. Instability parameters are not as favorable Sunday across
the area with the exception of the eastern San Gabriels where an
isolated storm is still possible through the early evening.
Otherwise, most areas will either be dry or just get some
sprinkles.

The muggy air tonight will likely keep overnight temperatures
warmer than usual so the Sunday lows have been increased above
most of the guidance numbers. Highs Sunday will continue the
cooling trend with most inland areas 5-10 degrees cooler than
today, and possibly more if clouds are thicker than expected.
Though the humidity will more than compensate for the decrease in
temperatures.

The area will be returning to more typical late Spring conditions
Monday and Tuesday as another upper low drops south along the
California coast and just offshore of Pt Conception Monday
afternoon. Increasing marine layer coverage is expected with
temperatures mostly 1-4 degrees below normal and either slow or no
clearing near the coast.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...31/215 PM.

Little change expected Wednesday, with typical June Gloom
conditions on the coastal side of the ranges, and breezy warm
conditions on the desert side. Ensemble projections show a range
of outcomes for the back half of next week, ranging from little
change to a modest warm up as the flow turns more northwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0618Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was under 500 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 1500 feet with a temperature of
27 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs flight cat transitions may
be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 20 percent chc of a shower
through 00Z and ISOLD TSTMs are possible near the mtns 18Z-00Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
1/2SM VV002 conds through 14Z. Cigs AOA BKN-OVC006 may arrive as
late as 1630Z. VFR conds may be delayed until 20Z. There is a 30
percent chc of a shower through 00Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of a TSTM
18Z-00Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/732 PM.

For the Outer Waters conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday morning. There is a 40-50%
chance of SCA level wind gusts across the northern Outer Waters,
around Point Conception, and south to San Nicolas Island Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Additionally, there is a 50%
chance for seas to reach 10 feet in the northern Outer Waters late
Sunday into Monday afternoon. Thereafter, conditions look to
remain below advisory criteria through next week.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.
However, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA level wind gusts Sunday
afternoon into late night.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through next week. However, there is
a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts over the western portion
during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
next week.

An upper level low pressure system off the coast of Baja
California will bring a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms through
Sunday, especially south of Point Conception. Anything
thunderstorm could produce lightning, rain, and gusty, erratic
winds.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 9 AM PDT Sunday
      through Tuesday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox