Crucero, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS65 KVEF 220857
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1257 AM PST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
continue through Monday with periodic high cloud cover. A weather
system will approach on Christmas Eve with accumulations of snow
expected in the Sierra and shower chances spreading east across
the Mojave Desert and Southern Great Basin. Temperatures will cool
somewhat behind the weather system but remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Christmas Day.

Shortwave trough which has already ejected from the PacNW into the
northern Rockies has worked to deamplify our ridge and allow for
some debris cloudiness from the Pacific to overspread the region.
This is evident on this mornings satellite imagery with lee cirrus
enhancement across much of Inyo County spreading into western
Nevada. This high cloud cover will persist through the day today
with a fairly large blanket of high clouds still incoming well
offshore. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will persist today
and Monday surface high pressure remaining in control over the
region.

Changes arrive on Christmas Eve as a Pacific storm system makes
its approach, with snow chances increasing in the Sierra, and
shower chances spreading east later in the day across the Mojave
Desert and southern Great Basin. The brunt of the moisture will be
squeezed out over the Sierra, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
continues to be expected in the Aspendell area. Precipitation
amounts and coverage will be fairly minimal elsewhere, with
desert locations ranging from a trace to a tenth of an inch,
though after the extended dry spell, even very light rainfall will
make for very slick roads in the area. Snow levels will generally
be in the 6000-7000 foot range, though they will fall closer to
5000 feet by Christmas morning for any lingering shower activity
in the area.

Aside from the precipitation potential. Some breezy conditions
will develop as well, especially across the Western Mojave Desert
and near Barstow Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is also some
signal for some downslope winds across the Spring Mountains and
Desert Rock areas which may warrant a wind headline as the event
draws closer.

.LONG TERM....Thursday through the Weekend.

Weak ridging early Thursday will quickly transition to a more
unsettled weather pattern for Thursday afternoon and Friday as a
shortwave digs south out of the Pacific Northwest. Long range models
struggle with exactly how this system will evolve, but the general
trajectory and overall set up is similar to an inside-slider
situation. This would result in limited precipitation impact
potential due to the limited moisture and rapid progression of the
shortwave itself. An uptick in winds would be the main possibility
with a system like this. With significant variance in long range
ensembles in what this system will look like when it moves through,
its not surprising that right now the probability for impactful winds
Thursday and Friday are 30% or less area-wide. Will need to watch
the evolution of this quick hitting wave as that may change as we
get closer to the event, though it`s worth mentioning that none of
the models show a high impact wind scenario at this time.

The wave will exit for the weekend and ridging will build back into
the region. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will drop back as
the previously mentioned shortwave passes through, though it wont be
a significant cool down with continue near or slightly above normal
temperatures expected. As the system exits and heights build back
in, temperatures will slowly warm this weekend and remain above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds under 8KT following
mainly diurnal wind patterns are expected through the forecast
period. VFR conditions will prevail, with increasing mid- and upper
level clouds with bases around 15-20kft AGL. While there is a brief
window this evening for ceilings to drop below 10kft, the
probability remains very low (less than 5%) for ceilings to reach
6.5kft or lower.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds following diurnal wind patterns are
expected across the region through the forecast period. The only
exception is KDAG, where winds will become elevated and at least
intermittently gusty by late morning, with gusts to around 20KT
possible through the end of the period. VFR conditions prevail, with
increasing mid- and upper level clouds with bases around 15-20kft
AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Phillipson

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