Chowchilla, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS66 KHNX 252331 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
431 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation and Air Quality Sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Windy conditions expected across the Mojave Desert this
weekend with a High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes.

2. Temperatures will see a cooling trend ahead of a disturbance
moving into the area this weekend.

2. Winter-like weather on Saturday as valley rain and mountain
snow will be observed.

3. A slight chance (25%-40%) of high Sierra Nevada afternoon
thunderstorms through Sunday. San Joaquin Valley thunderstorms
expected on Saturday (15%-25%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...Change in the weather is now being ushered-in as
a Pacific Storm approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the storm on
Saturday, clouds and winds are starting in increase as
temperatures continue their cooling trend. Satellite water vapor
imagery is showing the storm taking shape and starting its drop
toward Central California. High-Res short-range ensembles still
placing Central California in the target zone as a the cold-
core upper low traverses the area on Saturday.

Ensemble analysis still leaning toward widespread precipitation
becoming likely across most of the San Joaquin Valley. Mountain
locations still have a better chance of measurable amounts.
Current PoE of measurable precipitation sits at 30%-40% from
Merced County toward Yosemite NP on Friday night and 30%-50% on
Saturday with near 60-70% for the higher elevations near
Yosemite. Therefore, while confidence on mountain precipitation
is growing, valley rain still has high uncertainty south of
Fresno County. Thunderstorms will be a threat this weekend over
much of the area as probabilities still trending higher over the
last few days. This threat includes the San Joaquin Valley,
foothills and Sierra Nevada. Storm moves out around Sunday with
ridging, drying and warming dominating the period from Monday
through at least next Thursday.

As for the winds, ensemble surface wind analysis shows an
increase in gusts over the Mojave Desert as speeds reaching into
the upper 30-40 mph range. Saturday looks more promising with
PoE of 55 mph plus winds sitting between 50%-65%. Will upgrade
the advisory to a high wind warning as the Mojave Slopes favor
high wind criteria. By Sunday, a return to a ridge pattern will
decrease winds for the remainder of the period.

As the storm exits later in the weekend, temperature begin a
rebound and rise to the mid 80s by Tuesday. The PoE of mid 80s
jumps up to a range of 40%-60% at that time. As a note, PoE of
90 degrees sits at 30%-40% by next Wednesday. Thursday shows
slightly high probabilities and implies continue warming into
the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, Local MVFR in low
clouds thru 18Z Sat. Areas of MVFR and local IFR in low clouds,
showers and thunderstorms between 18Z SaT and 24Z Sat.

Across the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills and Tehachapi
Mountains, increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR in low
clouds thru 06Z Sat. Widespread mountain obscuring IFR in low
clouds, rain and snow between 06Z Sat and 24Z Sat.

Across the Kern County portion of the Mojave Desert, VFR will
prevail thru 24Z Sat with wind gusts greater than 50KT possible
along the Mojave Desert Slopes after 06Z Sat.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339.
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Sunday
for CAZ338.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
Sunday for CAZ323-325>330.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday
for CAZ331-333>336.

&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation...DAS

weather.gov/hanford