Carpinteria, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS66 KLOX 220352
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
852 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/735 PM.

Gusty northerly winds will continue across southern Santa Barbara
County, the Interstate 5 Corridor and other interior areas
through early Sunday. A warming trend for inland areas is expected
to begin Sunday but below normal temperatures will continue into
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...21/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

A large upper level trough extends from Montana southwestward into
California and Nevada, resulting in gusty west to northwest winds
across portions of the area this evening. The strongest winds
are expected to be over the interior Santa Barbara Mountains and
eastern Santa Ynez Range, the Antelope Valley, the Ventura
mountains and I-5 Corridor where High Wind Warnings are in effect
through early Sunday morning. The winds so far are below warning
level, but the high- res models show increases over the next
several hours, especially in the area of the northern Ventura
Mountains across the western San Gabriels and the western Antelope
Valley foothills. Gradients are trending toward increasing winds
across the Santa Barbara County mountains and eastern Santa Ynez
Mts as well. With this in mind, moderate confidence that winds
will increase to warning level over the next 2-4 hours.

Gusty NW winds are also affecting the southwest to western Santa
Barbara County, the Santa Lucias, and the Antelope Valley, where
Wind Advisories are in effect. All the winds will drop off
rapidly late tonight into early Sunday  morning with fairly
benign weather expected to follow.

As for overnight cloud cover, expect some stratus coverage over
the LA Basin, but ceilings could end up being broken and not
widespread. Otherwise mostly clear conditions are expected
overnight into Sunday. In addition, temperatures will warm for
most areas, anywhere from 8 to 15 degrees warmer over the
interior, and 3 to 6 degrees warming closer to the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Once winds calm down Sunday morning, the main area that will see a
return of gusty winds Sunday evening will be the SBA Southwestern
Coast and western portion of the Santa Ynez Mountain Range. Gusts
up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible, with another wind advisory
not out of the question.

Outside of the winds, weather impacts are relatively low. A brief
warm up is expected Sunday and Monday (with little change on
Tuesday) as onshore flow weakens by around 5mb and the marine
layer depth lowers by 1000 feet or so. Highs inland expected to
warm about 10 degrees from Saturday while coastal areas pick up
1-3 degrees. Even with this warmup, highs are still expected to be
3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/234 PM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wednesday and remain
through the end of the week. As a result, temperatures will
increase back to near (or even slightly above) normals for this
time of year. Not expecting any strong winds during the period
except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each afternoon.
Overall, very seasonable weather next week that will likely carry
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0243Z.

At 0118Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep with an
inversion top at 3000 feet with a temperature of 14 Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Low confidence
on winds at KWJF, KPMD, and KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity
could surface strong winds at any time through the period.
Expected LLWS issues when winds are lighter at the airport. There
is a moderate chance of BLDU with MVFR vsbys at KWJF and slightly
lower chances at KPMD through the fcst period. C

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR cigs may arrive 1-3
hours later than forecast. There is a 60% chance of east wind
component exceeding 6 kt from 10Z to 16Z (+/- 1 hour).

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 10% chance for
brief MVFR cigs around 14Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...21/848 PM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT***

Moderate confidence in current forecast, with winds being a touch
weaker than expected. However, Gale Force northwest winds are
ongoing beyond 20 miles from shore through tonight. May need to
end the Gale Warning in the Santa Barbara Channel early. Hazardous
steep short period seas will be ongoing tonight, gradually
improving Sunday. While winds are not expected to reach Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) off Los Angeles and Orange Counties, a SCA is
in effect for steep seas through tonight. Small craft should stay
in safe harbor, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for
the first half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each
evening. High-end SCA winds are still likely for the waters
beyond 20 miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower to more
seasonal speeds by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...21/342 PM.

An unseasonably strong upper level trough of low pressure is moving through
the region this afternoon through tonight. West to north winds will continue to
increase this afternoon and evening with gusts of 30 to 50 mph bringing
widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the mountains,
interior and southern Santa Barbara County. Even stronger and locally damaging
wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph are expected this afternoon into tonight across the
Santa Barbara County interior mountains, Ventura County mountains, I-5 corridor,
and Antelope Valley including the western foothills. These stronger winds
combined with humidities lowering to between 10 and 25 percent
will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to these areas, resulting in
the Red Flag Warning which is valid through tonight. While locally stronger winds
are still expected to surface across portions of the eastern Santa Ynez range
later this afternoon into tonight, it no longer appears they will have a sufficient
duration of strong wind/low humidity overlap, resulting in the cancellation of the
Fire Weather Watch for this area, and just including them with brief critical headlines.
Areas in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon through tonight will have the
highest risk for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, with the threat
of long range spotting.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Phillips/Black
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox