Carlsbad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXUS66 KSGX 241747
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
947 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions this afternoon with below average temperatures.
Temperatures will fluctuate between slightly below normal and
slightly above this week. Additional chances of precipitation
Monday, mainly for the High Desert and San Bernardino mountains.
Rain chances expand for Tuesday and Wednesday, with at least slight
chances for most places in and west of the mountains. Periods of
gusty westerly winds for the mountains and deserts are expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Dry conditions with cloudy skies west of the mountains as of 9 AM.
It did rain overnight in and west of the mountains. Places in the
foothills of the San Bernardino mountains accumulated the most rain,
with minimal accumulations elsewhere. A rainfall summary is
headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego website. Dry conditions are
expected for the rest of the day, with high temperatures a few
degrees warmer than yesterday for the coast and low deserts and a
few degrees cooler for the valleys, mountains, and High Desert.

The upper level pattern is expected to stay mostly zonal over
Southern California for Monday but a low pressure system digging
south along the Pacific Northwest will allow for heights to fall and
for moisture to reach the northern portions of our forecast area.
Latest guidance is indicating some light accumulating precipitation
is possible in the High Desert and San Bernardino county mountains
Monday. There is some uncertainty in whether or not any rain will
make it into Orange County or the Inland Empire. Right now, slight
chances of rain remain for Orange County and the Inland Empire on
Monday but only a few members of the ECMWF and GEFS are showing
light precipitation. As the low pressure system moves east into
the upper Great Basin on Tuesday, weak troughing is expected over
Southern California which will allow the moisture to move south,
reaching San Diego county by Tuesday evening. At least a tenth of
an inch of rain is expected to accumulate for Orange County, the
Inland Empire, San Bernardino county mountains, and portions of
the High Desert between Monday and Wednesday morning. There is a
25 percent chance of locations in northern Orange County and
Inland Empire to accumulate up to 0.25". There is a 60 to 80
percent chance of at least a 0.25" of rain in the San Bernardino
mountains and a 5 to 10 percent chance of accumulations exceeding
0.50". Mostly light rain is expected for San Diego county, with
only a 5 to 10 percent chance of rainfall totals exceeding 0.10",
highest in northern San Diego county Tuesday into Wednesday
morning.

In addition to periods of rain, westerly winds will increase for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will be strongest over the
mountains into the deserts. Peak gusts will be 35 to 45 mph, locally
up to 50 mph in wind prone passes and canyons. Snow levels for
Monday through Wednesday are expected to stay above 7000 ft. Dry
conditions are expected for Wednesday evening into Thursday with
weak ridging over Southern California. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, becoming near to slightly
above normal for the end of the week away from the low deserts. In
the low deserts temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal for the forecast period.

There remains some uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend.
Global models are depicting a ridge of high pressure over the
Pacific Northwest with a trough of low pressure off the coast of
Southern California. Historically, this is a tricky set up for
models. Global model ensemble solutions are continuing to show
differences in placement and amplitude of the previously mentioned
ridge and trough. Most model solutions are trending drier for
Friday than previous runs, with 50 percent of solutions trending
wetter for Saturday. The solutions with majority ECMWF and GFS are
running wetter than solutions with majority Canadian model.
Hopefully, subsequent runs will bring more clarity on if the
forecast will trend drier and warmer or wetter and cooler for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
241615Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN/OVC clouds with variable bases 300-
1800 ft MSL will continue through 17Z, then gradually lift and
become SCT/BKN 17-20Z. Areas of coastal terrain obscurations will
occur through 18Z, with VIS down to 3-5SM. SCT-BKN clouds above
10000 ft MSL will prevail after 18Z, continuing through Mon morning
with mostly unrestricted VIS.

Mountains...Low clouds with bases around 1500-2000ft MSL and areas
of terrain obscurations will continue through 18Z due to clouds/FG/-
SHRA, especially on the coastal slopes. FEW-BKN clouds with bases to
10,000ft MSL will continue through Monday morning. Local west
surface gusts 20-30kts will occur over mountain crests/desert slopes
through Monday morning.

Deserts...Occasional SCT-BKN clouds above 10000 ft MSL will occur
through Mon morning with unrestricted VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber