Carlsbad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

117
FXUS66 KSGX 240340
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
840 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering scattered showers will bring light rain to areas west of
the mountains today, becoming more confined to San Diego County this
evening. Weak offshore flow expected Saturday and Sunday. Dry and
warmer for the weekend through Monday, then gradually cooler for the
middle of next week with a chance of precipitation for late next
week. Tides will increase over the weekend, remaining elevated
through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery at 12 PM was showing scattered showers moving from
north to south mainly across coastal areas. Over the past 6 hours,
places north of San Diego County have received mainly less than
0.05", with totals ranging from 0.05 to 0.30" in San Diego County.
Additional showers will continue at times through the day, most
likely in San Diego County, eventually tapering off overnight.

By tonight, models are showing a closed upper level low moving south
and east towards the border of California and Arizona. This will
turn the pressure gradient weakly offshore, increasing north to
northeasterly winds in wind prone locations. Peak wind gusts will be
in the 30 to 45 mph range, strongest on the foothills of the San
Bernardino mountains and just below the Cajon Pass. Given the
unsettled weather quickly turning to offshore flow, marine layer low
clouds and fog will largely be absent from the coast into early next
week.

High temperatures over the weekend will warm. Highs Saturday are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with additional
warming along the coast on Sunday and a few degrees of cooling or no
change further inland. By Monday, high temperatures in coastal areas
will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with temperatures closer to
average further inland. Cooler conditions expected for the middle to
end of next week.

Global ensembles are indicating the potential for unsettled weather
for the end of next week. There remains a lot of spread in solutions
and uncertainty in the details. Rain chances are in the forecast as
early as Friday. NBM chances for 0.01 inch or more of rainfall for
the coast to the mountains increases from 10 to 20 percent for next
Friday to 35 to 45 percent on Saturday the 31st to 40 to 50 percent
on Sunday November 1st. In addition to precipitation, cooler,
cloudier, and windier conditions may develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
240015Z...SHRA are moving though the high desert and IE this
evening, slowly pushing south across the region (west of mtns), then
sweeping through San Diego county through ~06z. VCSH for coastal
southern SD County through 10z. Bases generally 4-9 kft through the
evening; SHRA to bring briefly MVFR (locally IFR) vis/cigs. As SHRA
departs, BKN/OVC clouds scatter out in the lowlands from north to
south this evening through tonight. Mostly VFR and clear by sunrise
Sat with N/NE winds (gusting up to 30 kts) developing overnight
through the morning around (and south of) the Cajon Pass and along
coast facing slopes.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of
producing gusty, erratic winds, choppy seas, and lightning.
Isolated northwest wind gusts will occasionally exceed 20 knots in
the outer waters through this evening. Otherwise, no hazardous
marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Astronomical high tides will create significant coastal flooding
starting Sunday. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above
predictions. Morning high tides could reach near 7 feet Saturday
morning and are likely to exceed 7.5 or 8 feet by Monday morning. A
Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire Orange and San
Diego coastline Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW