Carlotta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS66 KEKA 130705
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1205 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy northwesterly winds forecast today and Saturday,
with the strongest winds on coastal headlands and in Lake County.
Coastal winds likely to clear stratus in the afternoons. Near normal
temperatures forecast into the middle of next week.

Key Messages:

* Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures forecast in
  the interior through mid next week.

* Gusty northwesterly winds forecast along the coast today and
  Saturday.

* Gusty westerly and northwesterly winds with low afternoon
  humidity in interior valleys today and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough moving through the Pacific
Northwest has weakened high pressure over the area. High
temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today, with
most of the warmer valleys forecast to be in the high 70s to the low
80s. Breezy northerlies are expected to develop by the afternoon,
with coastal Mendocino, Point St. George, and Point Arena all seeing
over 80% probabilities for peak gusts over 30 mph. There are high
probabilities for gusts over 25 mph for much of the rest of the
coastal areas. Interior ridges and wind channeled valleys (including
Lake County) have a over 70% chance to gust over 25 mph as well.
Chances for gusts over 40 are largely confined to the King Range and
Point St. George. Coastal winds will likely be the death blow to the
coastal stratus this afternoon, allowing a few hours of mostly sunny
skies before winds ease and stratus redevelops. Winds remain breezy
Saturday afternoon. NBM is showing high probabilities for afternoon
breezes over 25 mph returning by Monday in Mendocino, Trinity, and
Lake, and by Tuesday everywhere.

Precip and/or thunderstorm probabilities remain low despite the
trough. Some CAMs are showing modeled reflectivity over the Trinity
horn this afternoon, but confidence is low as both instability and
moisture are lacking. As the trough moves through Monday, NBM is
showing low precipitation chances (5-10%) along the coast, likely in
the form of light rain or drizzle. Interior convection remains
unlikely despite additional moisture as instability remains low. No
clear signs for a major warm up next week, with interior
temperatures remaining in the 80s or low 90s. Temperatures could
trend downward late next week as another trough digs southward from
the Gulf of Alaska.


&&

.AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs...Mainly IFR to MVFR ceilings along the
coastal terminals through Friday morning. The Mckinleyville profiler
indicates a marine layer depth up to around 3,000 feet MSL, while
near 2,000 feet MSL per Bodega Bay profiler. As result, stratus
blanketed much of the nearshore coastal waters and extended well up
the adjacent river valleys, with low clouds and patchy fog covering
a significant portions of Humboldt County. High-res model guidance
shows a gradual improve to VFR conditions late morning and afternoon
Friday as a shortwave trough moves over the area. VFR conditions are
forecast to prevail at UKI. Surface winds becoming out of the NW at
10-15kt around 17Z,and increasing through 14/00Z. Expect gusty NW
winds up to around 35kt at KCEC Friday afternoon and early evening,
while gusts around 20 kt will be likely at ACV and UKI. Winds are
expected to ease after 14/03Z, but will remain breezy at CEC.


&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly winds will continue to increase
throughout the waters on Friday and into the weekend as the coastal
pressure gradient tightens. Strong to near gale force gusts are
expected across the coastal waters. Locally gale gale force gusts
are likely downwind of Cape Mendocino and Point Saint George during
Friday and Saturday afternoon hours. Strong wind will drive some
steep short period waves into the inner waters. Winds and seas
remain be elevated through the weekend, especially in the outer
waters with wave heights 8 to 11 feet at 8 to 9 seconds expected.
Strong northerly winds forecast to decrease slightly and retreat to
the southern waters early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty west to northwest breezes continue today in
the interior valleys. Generally gusts are forecast to peak around 15-
20 mph in the afternoon and evenings. Some higher gusts are possible
in eastern Lake, Mendocino, and Trinity counties. HREF is showing
good probabilities for areas of eastern Lake to see higher gusts of
25-30 mph this evening and afternoon. Min RH remains low (10-20%),
but overnight recoveries remain good (50%+) in the valleys.
Recoveries in the higher terrain of eastern Lake and Mendocino are
worse (30-40%). Afternoon winds remain breezy in eastern Lake,
eastern Mendocino, and Trinity counties for much of next week
accompanied by low afternoon RHs.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455-470-
     475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png