Canby, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXUS66 KMFR 121949
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1249 PM PDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is exiting to the east today. Then
a high pressure ridge will build into the area tonight into
Sunday, remaining in place on Monday. A surface thermal trough
along the coast today into Sunday will bring breezy to gusty north
to northeast winds to the area this afternoon and evening, with
strongest winds near the coast. Winds trend lower on Sunday but
remain breezy to gusty, along the coast and over coastal
mountains. Then the pattern begins to change on Tuesday as a weak
upper trough arrives.

Key Points:

* Cool low temperatures are expected tonight and Sunday morning.
  There is a potential for areas of frost for inland valleys west
  of the Cascades.
* Temperatures trend warmer Sunday and moreso, on Monday.
* High chances (60-90%) for of afternoon temperatures reaching 80
  degrees or more for inland valleys west of the Cascades on
  Monday.
* Gusty north to northeast winds this afternoon and evening across
  the area, strongest at the coast and over coastal mountains.
* Afternoon temperatures trend less warm Tuesday and there is a
  low chance (10%) for late afternoon/evening thunderstorms east
  of the Cascades and in the Mount Shasta City area.

As an upper trough exits to the east today, skies are clearing.
Near the coast, a surface thermal trough is strengthening and
gusty north to northeast winds have developed along the coast and
across the mountains near and just inland of the coast. Models
and guidance continue to show winds strengthening and gusty north
to northeast winds developing for most the area later this
afternoon and early this evening. Overnight, expect gusty
northeast winds to continue along the ridges, lowering on Sunday.
However, still expect some continued breezy to locally gusty
winds along the coast and over coastal ridges on Sunday. Inland
valleys west of the Cascades will see a potential for areas of
frost tonight and early Sunday morning with low temperatures in
the mid 30s expected.

Warmer afternoon temperatures are likely across the area Sunday,
with highs in the 70s for valleys west ofthe Cascades and into the
60s for valleys east of the Cascades. Then, temperatures trend
even warmer on Monday. The National Blend of Models (NBM) and MOS
guidance supports high chances (60-90%) for afternoon temperatures
near or above 80 degrees in valleys west of the Cascades on
Monday.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper ridge will shift
eastward while a weak trough gradually moves into the area. This
will result in afternoon highs trending less warm on Tuesday and
Wedensday. Additionally, a closed low will develop off the coast
of south- central California. With this pattern, models indicate
some mid level moisture moving up into the area on Tuesday. This
combined with afternoon instability and lift as the trough moves
into the area, will bring a low chance (10%) for thunderstorms for
areas east of the Cascades (southeast Klamath, Lake, eastern
Siskiyou, Modoc counties) as well as into the Mount Shasta City
area.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper low to the north will drop
down into the region while a high pressure ridge amplifies
offshore. The position of this low will be the main driver in how
much shower activity we get, with best chances for showers east
of the Cascades, or whether the area stays mainly dry and we see
stronger northeasterly winds develop (as stronger thermal trough
strengthens along the coast. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
supports a drier, potentially windier forecast at this point, so
the forecast reflects this scenario. However, we will continue to
monitor this period and changes are possible over the next several
forecast cycles.


&&

.AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...Mid level clouds are clearing across
the area late this morning and early this afternoon. VFR is expected
across southern Oregon and northern California through the TAF
period. Gusty northerly winds are likely at all terminals in the
afternoon and early evening today.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Saturday, April 12th...Today, a thermal
trough will result in moderate to strong north winds during the day
with the strongest winds near and south of Port Orford. This
morning, gusty north winds are bringing steep to very steep seas
from Cape Blanco southward with steepest seas and strongest winds
from near Port Orford south. Winds will peak this afternoon into
this evening, with gales expected to develop from Port Orford
southward. This afternoon conditions hazardous to small craft will
expand northward to the waters from Cape Blanco to Florence.  Winds
will lower slightly tonight into Sunday, but expect continued gusty
winds with a mix of steep to very steep seas south of Cape Blanco
and steep seas continuing from Cape Blanco northward.

North winds trend lower on Monday, but expect linger steep seas
across much of the waters. Then north winds strengthen again Tuesday
and persist into most of next week with a "classic thermal through"
pattern that is typical of the summer months, but can sometimes
occur this time of the year. Winds will be strongest south of Cape
Blanco during this time with a mix of steep to very steep seas
likely.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$