Blairsden, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS65 KREV 251020
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
320 AM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A late season storm will bring mountain snow, valley rain,
  thunderstorms, gusty winds, and much cooler weather today and
  last through the weekend.

* Prepare for occasional travel disruptions in and across the
  Sierra, as well as mountain passes in Mineral and Southern
  Lyon counties.

* Warmer and drier weather prevails early next week with chances of
  showers and storms returning by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Not too much change from the previous package tonight as the
forecast appears to be on track. When looking at the latest upper
air RAP analysis, the CWA has a generally southerly flow aloft with
an upper low to the west off of the northern CA coast. Forecast
guidance continues to project this western low to deepen and make
its way down the CA coast today and going into early tomorrow before
cutting eastward across central CA midday Saturday. This low then
continues an east-northeast path potentially clipping the southern
portion of the CWA (Mono and Mineral Counties) late Saturday and
early Sunday before departing off to the east by Sunday evening.
This upper air pattern will be the cause of mountain snow and valley
rain showers with some thunderstorm chances. The pattern will also
bring the end to the period of spring-like temperatures as colder
temperatures are in the forecast.

While the latest run of the HRRR shows light precipitation chances
starting early this morning in Mineral County that look to travel
northward, snow levels this morning will be around 7-7.5 kft
allowing for the slight chance precipitation to take the form of
light rain showers during the morning commute. Later today, models
are showing up to around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE for areas closer to
the OR border this afternoon which may allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to occur. There is also a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE
generally south of US-50 this afternoon which could cause some
rumbles of thunder as a shortwave disturbance moves through aloft.
With the increased cloud cover that comes along with today`s
precipitation chances, daytime high temperatures look to be around
8 to 10 degrees cooler than those seen in the region yesterday
with less daytime time heating and cooler air moving in. For
tonight, low temperatures in the Sierra communities expect to be
chilly dropping to between around 20 to 30 degrees with the valley
areas seeing overnight low temperatures in the middle 30s to
lower 40s range.

Mountain snow showers begin as early as this afternoon when snow
levels start to drop before heavier snow arrives during the
overnight hours tonight and going into Saturday morning. This is
the period (late tonight through Saturday morning) when most of
the snow will fall in the Sierra, White Mountains, and mountains
of Mineral and Southern Lyon counties, and thus is when travel
disruptions are most likely. Given that it is late April and
roadways are warm following several days of spring warmth, it will
be very difficult for snow to accumulate on roads during the
daytime. A few heavier snow/pellet showers may be able to provide
light accumulations locally Saturday afternoon. Snow showers will
wrap up Sunday morning, bringing snow totals to 1-3 inches for
lower Sierra communities (e.g., Truckee, South Lake), 3-6 inches
along Sierra passes and Mammoth Lakes, and up to 8-12 inches along
highest peaks of the Sierra, White Mountains, and Southern
Lyon/Mineral County mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued in these areas for the duration of this snow event, so
please check out weather.gov/rev/winter for more details on this
advisory product. Elsewhere, a dusting to an inch of snow may
result in minor travel impacts for foothill areas above 5500 feet
(Virginia City). It is a good idea to get any weekend traveling
done this morning, or you should be prepared for slick roads and
delays if you must travel this weekend.

Lower western Nevada valleys will likely see periods of light rain
over the weekend with a 10-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms
again on Saturday afternoon. Similar to storms on Friday, stronger
thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy downpours, gusty
outflows, and occasional lightning. It will also be noticeably
cooler on Saturday when daytime highs only reach the 40s and 50s.
Temperatures will approach freezing again on Saturday night, so be
sure to protect sensitive vegetation now. Beyond the weekend,
extended forecast guidance currently shows warmer and drier
weather to start the work week with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms returning by midweek. -013/078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected at all TAF
sites this morning before winds increase around 18Z when area shower
chances increase. As snow levels drop going into the evening,
precipitation type turns to snow particularly for the Sierra
mountain terminals causing MVFR/IFR going into the night. Periods
of sub-VFR conditions are expected as the mountain snow and valley
rain chances persist through the weekend with LLWS and mountain
wave turbulence possible. Western NV does see some slight (10-20%)
potential for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours today
and tomorrow as well. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday NVZ001-002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$