Biola, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS65 KPSR 122135
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
235 PM MST Sat Apr 12 2025

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over the region, promoting well above
normal temperatures with triple digit numbers possible this
afternoon in few locations. A series of weather systems will lead to
a slight cooling trend for the region but temperatures overall will
remain above normal through the middle of next week. Fire weather
remains a concern over the higher terrains as winds will begin to
increase this afternoon along with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery continues to show ridging aloft over the Desert SW, and a
troughing system to the north that has started to progress through
the Pacific NW. As this trough to the north begins to pass through
the northern Rockies into the northern Great plains it will start to
push the ridge over the Desert SW to the east slightly. Before that
happens this afternoon most of the Desert SW will expect
temperatures in the high 90s to a few areas potentially reaching the
triple digits again. Phoenix is on track today (>90% chance) to set
another record high for the day with a forecasted high temperature
of 101, which would beat the previous (99) set in 1936. As the
afomentioned troughing system progresses across the NW our region
will see pressure gradients begin to tighten, promoting an
increase in wind speeds this weekend. The increase in wind speeds
in combination with very dry conditions will lead to elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions, primarily across
southern Gila and far eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties.

As the system to the north ejects into the Northern Plains another
weak eastern Pacific low is shown moving towards the Baja Peninsula
and will help slightly lower 500mb heights. This will lead
temperatures to begin venturing away from the triple digits starting
Sunday through the middle portions of next week. While this slight
drop (3-4 degrees) will be welcomed, temperatures will still remain
~10 degrees above normal. With our forecast area caught in between
two systems, the regional pressure gradient will remain slightly
enhanced into Sunday, allowing for the re-emergence of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditons for the same area mentioned
above due to enhanced breeziness.

Looking into the later half of next week into next weekend, a lot
of uncertainty begins to emerge thanks to a stronger cutoff low
off the coast of Southern CA and another troughing system in the
Pacific NW. The cutoff low alone could bring a more significant
cooling trend to the Desert SW compared to earlier in the week.
However, models are now showing potential for the Pacific NW
trough to dig deep enough into the Great basin to connect with the
system to our west. Although there is still low confidence in
model consensus associated with this pattern. To drive home how
uncertain models are behaving, the NBM 25th-75th interquartile for
Phoenix Sky Harbor has a range of 10-12 degrees between next
Friday and Saturday, but looking at the 10th-90th percentile
spread reveals differences about 20-25 degrees (ranging from the
lower 70s to middle 90s). Continued monitoring of subsequent model
outputs will be critical as the systems approach to see the
pattern evolution. If the model output with conjoining troughing
systems approaching the Desert SW becomes favored below seasonal
temperatures will be likely. However, if trends revert back to a
weaker single system, warmer temperatures would be anticipated. It
is also worth mentioning that if the solution of these systems
conjoining comes to fruition, an increase for potential rainfall
will be possible, especially across the AZ higher terrain, as PWAT
values increase close to 150% of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation weather concerns under increasing high clouds
can be expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind
pattern throughout the period will continue to exhibit the typical
diurnal tendencies with a period of southerly winds likely for a
few hours before switching out of the west this afternoon. Some
occasional afternoon gusts approaching 20 kts will be likely
before gusts diminish by early this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns under periods of SCT high
clouds can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL,
southerly winds through early this afternoon will switch out of
the west by late this afternoon. At KBLH, winds will generally
fluctuate between south to southwest throughout the period.
Overall sustained wind speeds across the TAF sites will generally
be aob 12 kts, with some afternoon/early evening gusts at around
20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through this
weekend, especially for the high terrain areas of the eastern
districts, due to very dry and breezy conditions. MinRHs generally
10% or below will persist into the middle of the week before some
relief arrives in the form of increasing moisture by the latter
half of the forecast period. MaxRHs will not offer much relief for
the next few nights as values range between 15-25%, but similar
to MinRH trends, some better overnight recoveries can be
anticipated by the middle of the upcoming week. As mentioned
above, breezy conditions will exist the next few afternoon,
especially over higher terrain areas where gusts will reach
upwards of 30-35 mph. Periods of enhanced breeziness also appear
likely throughout next week, which could result in more elevated
fire weather concerns. Abnormally hot conditions will persist
through today with a few locations reaching into the triple digits
once again. A slight cooling trends will take place beginning on
Sunday, but afternoon high will remain above-normal for this time
of year through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr 12   99 in 1936    102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ133.

CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RYAN
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...RW/Ryan
CLIMATE...Kuhlman