Baker, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS65 KVEF 241015
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
215 AM PST Tue Dec 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure will move into the region today
allowing for gusty south-southwest winds to develop across the
western half of the area this afternoon while precipitation chances
spread east throughout the day and overnight. Mountain snow and
light valley rains possible during this time, especially for areas
north of Las Vegas. Calmer, more-seasonal conditions resume
Christmas Day. Largely quiet weather beyond that with just some
light precipitation chances over our northeastern zones on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Christmas Day.

Shortwave ridge over the area will shift east this morning as a
Pacific trough moves inland and into our area this afternoon and
overnight. This system will be a quick hitter and will be out of the
area by mid day Wednesday. In terms of impacts, expecting mostly
minor impacts from wind and precipitation, though isolated moderate
impacts will be possible in the Spring Mountains.

Initial impacts will be the increasing southwest winds this
afternoon across our western zones where wind gusting between 40-55
mph are possible. Currently, we have wind advisories in place for
Esmeralda, Nye, and western San Bernardino counties along with the
Owens Valley and Death Valley in Inyo County for this afternoon and
evening. There is some potential of seeing downslope winds in the
eastern Sierra this morning, but it looks like the strongest winds
will remain west of Highway 395, however, some westerly gusts up to
50-60 mph will be possible for a brief period time for elevations
above 5000 feet. We could also see a brief window early this evening
for gusty downslope winds over the western Las Vegas Valley where a
few locations exceed 40-45 mph for a brief period of time. Winds
gradually weaken into Christmas morning as the system shifts east.

Precipitation will be rather limited with this system as it moves
through the region. The Sierra will intercept most of the moisture,
but we will still see a narrow band of showers spread across the CWA
this afternoon and evening. Snow totals over the eastern Sierra are
expected to range from about 4-8 inches with most of the heavier
accumulating snow remaining above 9000 feet. Even places like
Aspendell at 8500 feet are only expected to see about 2-4 inches of
snow. As this precipitation band spreads east across the CWA we
could see some isolated areas of brief heavy snow across the higher
terrain of Esmeralda and central Nye counties late this afternoon
and evening, but due to the quick progression of this system, snow
totals are not expected to amount to much more than a couple of
inches. The one area we continue to watch is are the Spring
Mountains where some minor snowfall impacts are possible. The latest
NBM continues to indicate about a 50-60% chance of seeing at least 4
inches of snow in Kyle Canyon and 70-80% chance in Lee Canyon by
Wednesday morning. These snow amounts combined with gusty winds up
to 50 mph could lead to hazardous travel conditions in the Spring
Mountains and a Winter Weather Advisory is currently in place
through 4 AM Wednesday. Measurable rainfall will mainly be confined
to central Nye and Lincoln Counties where there is about a 40-70%
chance of seeing at least 0.10" of rain and 20-30% chance of seeing
0.25". There could be some isolated areas around Las Vegas that
could see measurable rain, but most areas will see at least a Trace
or less. These light amounts may actually be worse in terms of
travel impacts, as the light rain won`t wash all the oil/grime off
the roads and may just mix with it, resulting in slick conditions.
With the best dynamics pushing through central Nevada, there could
be a few embedded thunderstorms from from Esmeralda County to
Lincoln County along with brief localized areas of heavy
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through New Years Eve.

In the wake of our Christmas Eve system, we`ll see a brief period of
shortwave ridging before our a weaker, secondary system skirts our
northeastern area on Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much of a
wind response with this shortwave, but PoPs do increase to 25-50%
over the Spring Mountains, Lincoln County, and northern Mohave
County. Any amounts will be light, with only a 25% chance of seeing
more than 0.10" QPF in the higher terrain, and only a 10% chance of
seeing 2"+ of snow. Beyond that, the extended forecast looks fairly
quiet as a broad ridge holds through at least Saturday. Towards the
end of the year, forecast uncertainty grows with the EPS maintaining
a progressive storm track to our north while the GEFS has a trough
digging into our area. The latter would obviously be more impactful,
likely bringing increased north winds and maybe some precipitation
chances, but uncertainty remains high this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds under 8KT following
mainly diurnal wind patterns are expected through early this
afternoon. An approaching storm system will result in a
southwesterly wind shift around 00Z-01Z, though precise timing
remains a bit uncertain. These southwesterly winds will become
elevated and gusty, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10-
15kt, with a 40-70% probability for gusts to exceed 25KT between 02Z-
05Z, and a 20-40% probability for gusts to exceed 35KT during the
same time frame. The period of stronger winds will be relatively
short-lived, with speeds decreasing but still remaining gusty as a
northwesterly wind shift arrives at the terminal around 08-10Z
Wednesday. Northwesterly to northerly winds will continue
thereafter. Ceilings will generally remain SCT-BKN at 10-20kft,
though from around 02Z-05Z, ceilings may drop to around 8kft, with a
less than 10% probability for 6.5kft ceilings or lower, coinciding
with the period of strongest winds and window for light rain at the
terminal. Any rainfall amounts will be light, with impacts fairly
minimal.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds following diurnal wind patterns are
expected across the region through this morning. An approaching
storm system will result in winds becoming elevated and gusty out of
the west and southwest this afternoon, with gusts to around 35kt
possible for KBIH and KDAG, with winds expanding eastward and
gusting to around 25KT through the evening. SCT-BKN clouds with
bases around 10-20kft will remain the rule, though lower ceilings to
around 8kft are possible, especially across southern Nevada after
00Z. Light rain showers are also expected around the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best chance at KBIH this afternoon,
expanding eastward late afternoon and early evening. Elevated
westerly to southwesterly winds will continue through the evening,
before shifting to the northwest late in the forecast period for all
but KIFP and KEED where the wind shift looks to hold off until after
12Z Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
Long Term...Woods
Aviation...Phillipson


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