Adin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS66 KMFR 071248
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
548 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.


&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z TAFs...A mix of IFR/MVFR with local LIFR is
present along the coast with areas of MVFR extending inland into the
Coquille Valley and Umpqua Basin, including at Roseburg. These
conditions will gradually clear to VFR late this morning into early
this afternoon. Gusty north winds are expected along the coast this
afternoon and evening, peaking near 30 kt at North Bend. Inland,
interior TAF locations have peak gusts around 20 kt. Offshore flow
will commence Thursday night, so aside from patchy fog and or low
clouds along the coast, mainly north of Cape Blanco, VFR should
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025/

DISCUSSION...An upper trough over the region will gradually shift
eastward today. This morning, this is bringing a marine push of
low clouds from the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. Areas of
light rain or drizzle are possible (10-20% chance), especially in
Douglas County this morning. In the afternoon, expect continued
mild to warm temperatures. Gusty afternoon and early evening winds
are likely, especially east of the Cascades and into the Shasta
Valley.

The pattern will change significantly Friday through early next
week as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds and expands
into the region. This will bring a significant heat wave by
Sunday and Monday. Initially, temperatures will trend above normal
Friday and Saturday. This will be accompanied by breezy to gusty
afternoon/evening winds, especially west of the Cascades, as a
surface through trough sets up along the coast. High temperatures
are forecast in the mid to upper 90s for valleys west of the
Cascades Friday and Saturday, and locally into the 100s along the
lower Klamath River Valley area in western Siskiyou county. Along
the coast, gusty northerly winds are expected in the afternoons
and evenings during this period. A Chetco warming effect,
associated with northeasterly winds, is expected to bring very
warm temperatures to the Brookings area as well on Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 80s and a low chance (5%) to reach 90.
Meanwhile, east of the Cascades expect above normal temperatures
as well with in the mid 80s to low 90s.

The combination of warming temperatures, dry humidities and gusty
winds will bring elevated fire weather concerns on Friday,
including for valleys in Josephine, Jackson and western Siskiyou
County where winds and humidities may approach critical levels in
the afternoon and early evening. Additionally, with the offshore
northeast flow associated with the thermal trough, expect gusty
winds and relatively low nighttime/morning humidities across the
ridges in the coast mountains of Curry and western Josephine
counties and into the mountains in western Siskiyou County. With
this pattern, we will continue to monitor and update for fire
weather concerns.

Heading into Sunday and Monday, winds will trend lower but the
heat wave will peak with hot temperatures developing across
inland areas. The National Blend of Models indicates high
temperatures of 99 to 107 are likely in valleys west of the
Cascades Sunday into Monday and locally to around 110 in the lower
Klamath River Valley in western Siskiyou County. Overnight lows
may only offer limited relief with warmer than normal low
temperatures in the mid 60s. With this pattern, models support a
moderate to major HeatRisk across most valley areas west of the
Cascades, indicating an increased risk for heat-related health
impacts. For additional details on this pattern, please see the
previous discussion below.


MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, August 8, 2025...Relatively
calm conditions will continue this morning.

Then, gusty north winds and areas of steep seas will develop this
afternoon south of Cape Blanco as a thermal trough builds along the
coast. Winds and seas will increase Thursday evening through Sunday,
with moderate to strong winds and steep to very steep seas across
the waters. Winds will be strongest and seas highest south of Cape
Blanco with very steeps seas expected. Also winds  may locally reach
gale force for areas south of Gold Beach in the early evenings,
especially Friday and Saturday, when conditions peak.

The thermal trough is expected to weaken late Sunday afternoon and
night into Monday at which point we`ll see conditions gradually
improve.

PREV LONG TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION... /Issued 447 PM PDT
Wed Aug 6 2025/

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Sunday through Tuesday is when
temperatures really heat up for inland areas. As far as the Chetco
Effect, there`s some uncertainty regarding if that will persist
into Sunday with some guidance showing onshore flow returning at
the coast and the thermal trough pushing inland. So it`s possible
for another day of hot temperatures along the southern coast. For
inland areas though, expect triple digits for the West Side
Valleys on Sunday with low to mid 90s for the East Side.
Temperatures trend hotter on Monday, and this currently looks like
the peak of the heat for inland locations. Currently we have 106
degrees in the forecast for Medford on Monday, but there is a 40%
chance of reaching 110 degrees. The coast north of Cape Blanco
should miss out on the hottest of the hot, but there are some
indications that temperatures in North Bend could reach into the
80s on Sunday and Monday. The heat starts to ebb on Tuesday with a
very subtle cooling trend. Triple digits remain in the forecast
for many West Side Valleys on Tuesday with low to mid 90s
continuing across the East Side.

These upcoming temperatures put the region under a moderate to major
risk for heat related illnesses. On Monday, much of the area west of
the Cascades is forecast to see a major heat risk, meaning that this
level of heat will impact anyone without cooling or hydration. Take
steps now to prepare for this heat wave, and be sure to know the
signs of heat illnesses. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, August 6, 2025...Dry
and stable weather will continue for the next several days.

Weak upper troughing will remain over the area today with afternoon
temperatures below seasonal norms for the interior.

A stonger upper trough will drop southeast and swing through
Washington State Thursday. This will result in a thermal trough
developing along the coast along with warmer afternoon temperatures
for the interior, but still slightly below normal. Gusty afternoon
and early evening breezes are likely east of the Cascades Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday evening, but relative humidities will
be high enough to keep conditions from getting critical.

Meanwhile, breezy east to northeast winds will set up near and at
the ridges in southwest Oregon and western Fire Zone 280 resulting
in moderate to locally poor overnight recoveries Thursday night.

Strong upper ridging builds into the area Friday through early next
week. Meanwhile the thermal trough will remain in place. The net
result will be continued gusty east to northeast breezes near and at
the ridges in southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County lasting
into Saturday night. East winds are then expected to weaken Sunday
night with improved overnight recoveries near and at the ridges in
southwest Oregon and western fire zone 280.

Temperatures near and at the ridges at night will be warm along with
warm afternoon temperatures at Brookings and Red Mound in the
afternoons starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Highs in
Brookings Friday into the weekend could get into the upper 80s or
low 90s.

At the same time, afternoon temperatures will heat up for the
interior westside valleys Friday into at least the middle of next
week. Afternoon temperatures for the interior westside valleys will
likely get into triple digit territory Saturday into Next Wednesday
and low to mid 90s east of the Cascades.

At the same time, we`ll have very low relative humidities in the
afternoon for the interior with minimum relative humidities for
portions of Fire zones 624, 625 and 285 getting close to single
digits Friday into early next week -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this
     afternoon to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

CC/CC/CC