Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXUS64 KMEG 231811
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1211 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and
  Christmas Day, lasting through Saturday.

- A few light showers and patchy drizzle are anticipated through
  Tuesday night.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed
  by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A 1030 mb surface high pressure area sits off the Carolinas this
morning. Return flow continues across the Mid-South with low
clouds, patchy drizzle, and isolated brief showers. Dewpoints
have climbed above 60 across most of the area, and highs will
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon despite
cloud cover.

A few light showers and patchy drizzle will continue through
tonight with clouds lingering through much of Wednesday. Strong
upper-level high pressure will continue to build over the region,
and we should start to see more sun toward the end of the week.
Forecast soundings do show the low-level moist layer breaking up
and mixing out. Temperatures will climb into the 70s on Wednesday
and remain there through Saturday. Lows will only drop into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. These numbers are 20 to 25 degrees above
normal. Some records are likely to fall across the Mid-South by
Saturday, especially if the sun makes a sustained appearance,
which could push temperatures toward the NBM90 guidance (upper
70s).

A strong cold front will push through on Sunday with widespread
rain followed by much colder temperatures. Monday`s weather will
feel a whole lot different than Christmas with morning lows in
the 20s and afternoon highs in the 30s, and wind chills in the
teens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

With high pressure situated to our east, southerly flow will
continue to transport moisture to the region. Therefore, clouds
will stay in place through the current TAF period. Cigs have
improved to MVFR, with the only exception being KMKL where IRF
conditions will persist for a few more hours. The current
satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds over north MS,
so KTUP may break out to VFR later this afternoon. Otherwise,
MVFR conditions will persist through the period across the other
TAF sites. There is the possibility for a brief return to IFR
conditions on Wednesday morning near 12-13Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue
through Tuesday night. Fire danger will remain very low all week
as humidity will remain elevated in the 60% to 80% range.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong
upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium
to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive on
Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic air.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...KRD