Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS64 KMEG 222305
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
505 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Very cold temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings
  with lows in the teens and 20s, with warming temperatures by
  mid-week into the 60s.

- Rain chances (60% chance or greater) will return Wednesday night
  into Thursday along a cold front. Thunderstorm potential remains
  very low at less than a 10% chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

This morning`s upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge over
the Rockies, and an upper level trough over the eastern half of
the U.S. Surface analysis places a 1050 mb arctic high over North
Dakota. Upstream 12Z upper air soundings show strong subsidence
over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys with winds aloft
ranging from 30 to 40 kts in the 925-850 mb layer. Regional METAR
observations have shown some of these elevated winds aloft mixing
down to the surface especially along and west of the Mississippi
River. As a result, mainly sunny skies, cold temperatures in the
upper 30s and 40s, and occasionally gusty winds are expected this
afternoon.

The surface high will build southeast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley through Tuesday, with the dry and cold airmass continuing
to bring well below normal temperatures to the Mid-South.
Temperatures will fall back into the teens near the Tennessee
River and 20s elsewhere tonight and Monday night. Highs on Monday
will struggle to reach 40 degrees at most locations. Short-term
winds were blended towards the NBM90th percentile and dewpoints
toward the NBM10th percentile, due to the NBM underperforming on
winds and overperforming on moisture. Temperatures will begin to
moderate Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as high pressure
moves southeast towards Florida and southerly winds return on the
back side of high pressure.

Long term ensemble solutions maintain northwest flow aloft into
next weekend across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough and associated cold front will move from the Pacific
Northwest into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Confidence remains high (>70% chance) for rain showers.
Conversely, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
remains very low (<10% chance) with poor instability despite
decent shear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Surface high pressure and a ridge over the Plains will slowly
shift east  approaching the Mississippi River valley tomorrow
evening. Confidence is high (>90%) in VFR conditions over the
next 30 hours. Wind gusts will subside tonight, but sustained
speeds will remain around 10 kts. Wind gusts 20-25 kts will
return tomorrow. Winds will veer through the TAF cycle becoming
northeast by sunset tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Dry and cold air will filter into the region into Monday with
minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each
day. Humidity and temperatures increase by mid-week with rain
chances returning Wednesday night into Thursday along a cold
front.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS