Malvern, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS64 KLZK 221145
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

The SW fringes of surface high pressure was still dominating
weather conditions locally this morning. Infrared satellite
imagery depicted low stratus developing over portions of the Red
River Basin Ewrd into the Ouachita Mtns. This area of stratus was
in response to low-level warm and moist air advection with
contributions of terrain via orographic lifting. Cloud cover should
translate to the NE this morning. Temperatures during the predawn
hours were starting out in the lower 20s to around 30 degrees.

Today, winds will gradually shift from the E to the SE as surface
high pressure pulls further away from the region and low pressure
begins to develop over the Srn Plains. This afternoon, temperatures
should climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies.
Tonight, cloud cover should begin to increase across the state from
the W with temperatures not quite as cold. Lows should fall into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Near the surface, high pressure will slide
into New England with a strengthening low over the Srn Plains
resulting Srly winds Monday into Monday night. Highs on Monday
should top out in the 50s to near 60 degrees with lows Monday
night remaining mostly in the 40s. PoPs will start to increase
Monday night.

Synoptically, NW flow was in place aloft between a deamplifying
upper ridge centered near the Rockies and an upper trough invof of
New England. By this evening, the ridge centered over the Rockies
will flatten with flow becoming more zonal across the nations
mid-section with the passage of a shortwave trough over the Nrn
Plains. On Monday into Monday night, a quick moving shortwave
trough should dig across the Cntrl/Srn Plains out of the Rockies.
Large scale forcing for ascent will spread downstream into AR
with unsettled bouts of weather set to affect the Natural State
during the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

The extended period will begin with temperatures moderating on the
back side of cold high pressure well to the northeast. At the same
time, a shortwave will be in the process of traversing the Rockies
into the Plains. As this feature approaches Arkansas Christmas Eve,
good chances of showers are expected. There could be rumbles of
thunder as well over central/southern sections of the state.

Scattered showers will linger on Christmas Day, especially in
southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. Any showers Wednesday night
will be spotty, but showers/scattered thunderstorms will ramp up
again Thursday through Saturday as two more potent shortwaves
quickly follow from the west.

From Christmas Eve through Saturday, there is an outside risk of
severe weather. Overall, model instability is not impressive during
this time frame. Well above seasonal precipitable water values
between 1 and 1.5 inches at times may lead to areas of heavy rain
and the potential of flash flooding in places. The forecast calls
for two to more than three inches of rain.

It will not feel like winter at all in the long term. Temperatures
will be above to well above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail today and tonight despite low
stratus moving into Wrn AR this AM. Added clouds to most TAF
sites where prior was SKC. Winds will be out of the SE today at 10
kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     47  32  53  42 /   0   0  10  40
Camden AR         53  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       49  34  52  42 /   0   0  20  70
Hot Springs AR    51  33  55  45 /   0   0  10  50
Little Rock   AR  50  33  56  45 /   0   0  10  30
Monticello AR     52  34  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      52  33  56  45 /   0   0  10  60
Mountain Home AR  48  33  51  42 /   0   0  20  60
Newport AR        46  31  52  43 /   0   0  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     50  33  59  44 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   51  33  53  44 /   0   0  10  60
Searcy AR         48  30  54  42 /   0   0   0  30
Stuttgart AR      49  33  56  44 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70