Jonesboro, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS64 KMEG 230558
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1158 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and
  Christmas Day, with very mild conditions lasting through
  Saturday.

- Periods of light showers and drizzle are anticipated through Tuesday
  night.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed by
  a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The latest surface analysis places a 1034mb high off the Carolina
and Virginia coast with a stationary front strewn from western
Iowa southeast through central Illinois back into Kentucky.
Return flow has strengthened across the Mid-South this evening
and dewpoint temperatures have climbed into upper 50s and lower
60s. Warm air advection will continue through the overnight hours
with low stratus and bouts of drizzle and light fog through
daybreak Tuesday.

A 588 dam upper level ridge, currently over Texas, will build
north and east over the next 24 hours. There is very high
confidence that anomalously warm air will blanket the region
Tuesday through Saturday with mainly rain-free conditions. NBM
guidance continues to come in on the lower end of guidance for
highs each day, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is
still 20 to 25 degrees above normal for late December. However,
MOS guidance is more closely aligned with NBM 90, which yields
highs in the low to mid 70s or near record maximums. Very mild
low temperatures are anticipated each day, which is where a few
records are at most risk of being broken.

The upper level ridge will dampen this weekend in response to a
phasing Arctic trough and Pacific trough over the Northern
Plains. LREF guidance remains consistent with a cold front
pushing down through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday with
widespread rainfall. A blast of Arctic air is looking more likely
early next week as NBM high temperatures fall into the low to mid
30s early next week. This will lead to a rapid change in weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

No significant changes from the 00z TAF issuance. WAA has taken a
bit longer to shrink dewpoint depressions, so onset of DZ has
continued to be delayed. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue to blanket
the airspace and DZ/BR will only enhance degradation to IFR/LIFR
ceilings between 12-21z.

Guidance is still favoring TUP to return to VFR by the end of
this cycle, with a 30% chance of a ceiling less than 3,000 ft. A
southern to northern extent of improvement is expected to follow
suit in subsequent cycles.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue
through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger
will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in
the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected
each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over
the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting
rainfall will arrive on Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic
air early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM