Jonesboro, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

451
FXUS64 KMEG 152315
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
615 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of the work week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  mainly during the daytime hours each day with gusty winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary from
the Ohio River Valley back through southeast Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. GOES visible satellite trends show an MCV
located over southeast Kansas with agitated cumulus located along
an old boundary over northwest Tennessee and near the
north/central Mississippi border. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring
across these two areas with some development also occurring over
north/central Arkansas. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies prevail
across the Mid- South with 2 PM temperatures mainly in the 80s
areawide.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop across the Mid-South during peak afternoon heating for
the remainder of the afternoon and persist into this evening.
Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values around 3000
J/kg with weak mid- level lapse rates, and little if any shear.
Additionally, GOES Precipitable Water Derived Product indicates
precipitable water values near the 99th percentile (1.9 to 2
inches) across most of the Mid-South this afternoon. This
environment favors pulse-type thunderstorms with a relatively low
severe thunderstorm threat at best. Gusty winds and localized
heavy rainfall are the threats with any strong thunderstorm.

Little has changed from previous model runs as a mid-level trough
axis will remain over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys
through Tuesday. Diurnally driven pulse-type convection will be
most prevalent Monday with coverage decreasing towards late week
as an upper-level ridge builds from the Southern Plains and into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. A continuation of high dewpoints
across the region combined with temperatures rising at or above 90
degrees may result in heat index values approaching Heat Advisory
criteria by the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected at
MEM and JBR tonight and tomorrow with brief lull in both coverage
and intensity early morning through mid morning. Once storms
return after mid morning, they should continue at least in the
vicinity of terminals through at least sunset Showers will become
more likely thereafter through midnight. At TUP and MKL VCSH will
be possible through the night tonight with a higher likelihood of
TS or VCTS by midday, and continuing through (or after) 00Z.

MVFR cigs will prevail late tonight through late tomorrow
evening. Used a mix of the HRRR and NAM-nest for timing. South to
SW winds 4-10 kts through the TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light winds and high humidity will persist this week. Mainly
afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances between 50
to 60 percent will drop towards 20-30 percent by next weekend as
an upper-level ridge builds into the region. Temperatures will
rise into the 90s by the weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS