Greenwood, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS64 KTSA 131542
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, with
    potential for a limited severe weather threat Saturday into
    Sunday, mainly in eastern Oklahoma. Continue to monitor the
    forecast for updates and additional details as they become
    available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Stacked low pressure system over southern Missouri will continue
to fill as it slowly moves northeast today. Moderate instability
on the periphery of the system and weak upper level divergence
has allowed a persistent band of showers and storms to form from
northeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. While intensity has
been limited, PWAT values on the order of 125% of normal have
contributed to observed hourly rainfall rates of 1.5"+. This
activity is expected to continue to shift slowly south and east
through the remainder of the morning with additional scattered
showers and storms forming with daytime heating in the general
same area across eastern Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas this
afternoon. The limited coverage of the heavy rainfall will
preclude the need for a flood watch but additional areal flood
advisories may be needed today. Otherwise, current forecast is in
line and needed only minor updates for cloud cover and PoP
orientation.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The upper low responsible for the rain the past couple days is
centered near the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri border area early this
morning. This system will continue moving slowly northeast today,
with the most widespread rain today across northwest Arkansas and
far eastern Oklahoma. A few showers and storms may also occur
across the rest of the area early this morning and again late this
afternoon, but coverage will be much lower than it will be farther
east. Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the 70s again
where rain is most prevalent, with the rest of the area warming
into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Overall, unsettled weather will continue over the weekend with
general upper troughing just east of the area and the potential
for a couple upper level disturbances to drop southeast in the
northwest flow aloft over our area. Scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly
across parts of northeast Oklahoma, and move southeast Saturday
morning before dissipating. With a warm, moist, and unstable
airmass in place, a couple late afternoon and evening storms will
also be possible, and a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled
out.

There is a signal in some of the data for a more organized MCS to
drop southeast into our area either late Saturday night/Sunday
morning, or late Sunday night/Monday morning, or both, so pops
will be maintained during this time period. In general, have gone
above the NBM pops this weekend into Monday to account for these
possibilities.

Very warm and humid conditions will prevail much of next week,
with afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100
degrees in some places. At least low shower and storm chances will
continue through at least midweek, with late Wednesday and
Wednesday night perhaps offering a better chance of showers and
storms as a weak surface boundary tries to push into the area
before washing out.

An upper ridge finally begins to build more strongly over our area
by the end of next week, which will likely bring an end to most of
the rain chances for awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A mixture of MVFR and IFR flight conditions prevail across most
of the forecast area early this morning. Ceilings and reduced
visibilities will likely hold through about midday before
improvements occur. Guidance shows VFR prevailing at all TAF sites
around midday or by early afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop through much of the TAF
period. Best shower/storm chances will occur over the AR
terminals, but all locations will see at least some chance of
precipitation over the next 24 hours. Winds will stay light and
variable this morning, turning more westerly by midday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  69  88  70 /  30  30  30  20
FSM   84  69  89  71 /  60  40  30  20
MLC   86  70  89  70 /  40  30  30  20
BVO   83  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  20
FYV   79  65  87  67 /  70  30  30  20
BYV   76  64  87  66 /  70  30  30  20
MKO   83  68  88  70 /  60  30  30  20
MIO   79  66  87  68 /  60  10  20  20
F10   85  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20
HHW   86  72  88  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67