Bentonville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS64 KTSA 221720
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Much above normal temperatures through the upcoming week. There
   is a high chance of daily record high temperatures some days.

 - Gusty southerly winds are expected at times, but increasing low
   level moisture should limit the overall fire weather threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Widespread low clouds will continue to thin out this afternoon given
a fairly shallow moisture depth. Clouds will clear first in
northeast Oklahoma, with clearing working east with time. Meanwhile,
breezy southerly winds will continue across the area, bringing warm
and moist air into the region. High temperatures will be quite a bit
higher than yesterday, with widespread 60s expected. The warmest
locations could reach 70 F.

Overnight tonight low clouds and perhaps even patchy fog will
return. CAMs seem to be focusing on a few areas, including near the
Red River, the Arkansas River valley near Fort Smith, and up near
the KS border (just south of a weak boundary). Very mild low
temperatures are expected, with most locations in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The forecast for the remainder of this week remains on track. A
sprawling area of high pressure will dominate the weather through
Saturday with record or near record warmth each day. By most upper
level metrics, this will be the strongest ridge ever seen this
time of year. Comparing the forecasted 500 hPa height of 588 dam
to the OUN balloon climatology, this will easily be the highest
value between mid November and mid March ever recorded. This value
would be typical for mid to late June. The 850 hPa temperature
max of around +20C is near the winter all time maximum. Not all of
this extreme warmth will be realized at the surface, but enough
will to put many records in jeopardy this week.

Increasing southerly flow Tuesday will bring warm air and
elevated low level moisture. Patchy morning clouds should quickly
give way to sunshine with highs into the 70s across the area. Dew
points will rise into the 60s, which will keep the fire weather
potential from increasing much, with even a few sprinkles possible
early Tuesday morning in the higher terrain of southeast OK/west-
central AR. This same pattern can be expected Wednesday with
morning lows in the 50s to lower 60s and highs in the mid to upper
70s. A few spots could touch 80 F if clouds are thin enough.
Christmas day will feature more of the same.

Model guidance is in good agreement that both Friday and Saturday
will follow persistence, with 70s to low 80s for highs, lows in the
50s to low 60s, and breezy. A cold front will then push through
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing much cooler weather.
Temperatures will be near or just above normal on Sunday. Rain
chances don`t look promising, but some ensemble guidance suggests a
few showers could occur, so included 10-20 PoPs for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR ceilings currently in place should erode quickly after 18z
with mostly clear skies through evening. Low clouds are likely to
return, but a bit farther east, by 12-14z Tuesday with MVFR
conditions again becoming widespread from southeast OK through
northwest AR. As a weak sfc boundary approaches northeast OK,
winds will become light and some fog potential may develop near
the OK/KS border. Right now will TEMPO some low vis at KBVO. Low
clouds will again erode by late Tuesday morning and some may
return to VFR before 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  76  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   54  76  60  78 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   60  79  62  79 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   48  74  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  74  60  75 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   52  73  59  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   55  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   52  73  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  77  59  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14