Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS65 KFGZ 222308
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
408 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild, dry, and breezy conditions are on tap through
Tuesday across Arizona. The pattern looks to become active from
Tuesday night through the Christmas holiday weekend with cooler
temperatures, stronger winds, and chances for precipitation. Most
of the precipitation is forecast to be in the form of rain, with
some high elevation snow possible toward Friday or Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s a mostly sunny afternoon around northern
Arizona, with thin high clouds streaming in from the southwest.
Temperatures are within a couple degrees of record highs at many
locations, a continuation of this unusually mild stretch of
weather we have experienced for the past couple of weeks. We are
still on track to see a significant pattern change starting
Tuesday night through at least Friday, and possibly stretching
into the weekend although that part of the forecast remains
uncertain. Widespread showers are forecast at times as several
disturbances rotate through the large west coast trough.

Through Tuesday afternoon, the mild weather will continue, though
southwest breezes will pick up to 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30
mph. For Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning - a chance of
showers moves in as the first in a series of shortwave disturbances
and deep moisture moves over northern Arizona. The air mass and
moisture source will be from the subtropics so the snow levels
will be on the high side. The initial showers early Tuesday
evening could produce some wet bulbing with snow levels briefly down
to 7000-8500 feet possible but then quickly climbing to near
10,000 feet through the night. This is mainly affecting areas along
and west of a Payson to Grand Canyon line.

Wednesday through Friday Night - a good chance of showers
(50-80%) will continue through sunrise Wednesday morning along and
west of a Payson to Grand Canyon line. Activity will briefly
decrease in intensity during the day Wednesday before a stronger
disturbance moves through Wednesday night through at least the
first part of Thursday. Showers will become likely (80-100%
chances) south and west of a line extending from Page to Show Low
and more spotty (40-60% chances) north and east of this line. A
general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is currently forecast during this
time period from the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai/Gila counties,
with localized amounts closer to 1.50" especially in the favored
southwest facing upslope zones. These amounts have trended a bit
lower with the latest forecast. The snow level will remain
elevated through Thursday morning ranging from 9500-10500 feet
then gradually lower to 7000-8000 feet during the day Friday as
the trough moves closer to Arizona. Snow levels could fall further
Friday night, down to 6500-7000 feet, with some light
accumulations possible - though by this time the heaviest
precipitation should have ended. It is also expected to be rather
breezy Wednesday through Friday, with southwest winds 15-25 mph
and gusty, even during overnight periods.

Saturday into early next week - there is still a rather large
spread among model solutions in handling the west coast low, which
will impact our weather over this time period. Solutions range
from fairly dry/warmer to widespread rain again by Sunday. There
has been a trend in the latest guidance to hold more of the low
off the west coast which would keep at least a low chance (30-40%)
of rain or snow showers each day across northern Arizona and that
is what is in our latest forecast. It would be best to check
back for more details as we get a better idea of what the weather
pattern will be beyond Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/00Z through Wednesday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight,
then becoming S-SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts after
17Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/00Z through Friday 26/00Z...SHRA with periods
of IFR or lower across the higher terrain through the period. S-SW
winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30-35 kts Tuesday night through Thursday
with the winds remaining elevated overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Breezy with above normal
temperatures during the day on Tuesday. Chances for rain showers
arrive Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday, with any
accumulating snow generally staying above 10,000`. Liquid
accumulations through Wednesday evening are 0.50-1.00`` (locally
higher in upslope areas), primarily in Yavapai, Coconino and western
Gila counties. Winds are south 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph, then 10-
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Chances for showers continue each day,
highest on Thursday. Additional liquid accumulations 0.50-1.00``
(locally higher in upslope areas) primarily in Yavapai, Coconino and
western Gila counties. Cooling temperatures may lead to more snow
mixing in along high elevation sites on Friday and Saturday, but
there exists considerable uncertainty at this time. Winds south
through southwest 10-20 mph gusting 30-35 mph on Thursday and
Friday, then west 5-15 mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff