Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS65 KFGZ 131953
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1253 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be
the main story for the forecast period. Some locally windy
conditions are expected through Wednesday, mainly along and south
of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure (585-590 dam 500 mb heights
which is above the 98th percentile for this time of year) from
northern California into the Pac NW will dominate our weather this
week and into the weekend. This will keep us in a dry northeasterly
flow, with gusty winds at times especially along and just south of
the Mogollon Rim and mountains of Yavapai County. The windiest time
looks like late tonight through much of Wednesday, when gusts may
reach 25-35 mph in the more favored locations and much higher above
9000 feet on the San Francisco Peaks. Otherwise, expect a warming
trend through the weekend, with highs reaching 5-15 degrees above
mid-January averages each day. The shortwave trough and weak dry
cold front that dives southward on the east side of the ridge
Fri/Sat now looks to stay mostly east of our area with minimal
change in temperatures in Arizona. Many of the ensemble members
show the ridge weakening mid to late next week, with a chance
that unsettled weather could return - no details yet, just
something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 13/18Z through Wednesday 14/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable
lower deserts, NE 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts higher terrain.
Overnight winds light and variable except downslope of San
Francisco Peaks and Mogollon Rim expect NE 5-15kts, gusts to
20kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 14/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds N-NE 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts
Wednesday, N-NE 5-15kts Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry with temperatures 5-15
degrees above average. Winds N-NE 10-20 mph with localized gusts
around 30 mph Wednesday, N-NE 5-15 mph on Thursday. Afternoon
minimum RH ranging from 20% lower deserts to 40% in the mountains.

Friday through Sunday...Dry with temperatures 5-15 degrees above
average. Winds light and variable in high deserts, N-NE 5-15 mph
downslope of Mogollon Rim, San Francisco Peaks and White Mountains.
Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 15-30% on Friday, 15-25% Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff