Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS65 KFGZ 282320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Sun Jun 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread dry conditions and gusty winds into this
evening, with critical fire weather. Southwest winds remain
breezy each afternoon Monday through Friday, with single digit to
low teen minimum RH values keeping much of northern Arizona in
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon
temperatures will also slowly increase through the week, but
remain mostly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An unusually deep low pressure system for late June
was located over the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies this afternoon. Arizona is on the dry and windy southern
portion of this low, resulting in a continuation of critical fire
weather over our region. Observed wind gusts this afternoon have
been slightly lower than Saturday, in the 35-45 mph range for most
areas, with RH values in the single digits to low teens. The
stronger winds aloft shift into east central Arizona later tonight
through Monday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday,
including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns, and Little
Colorado River Valley. Southwest winds in these areas are
forecast to reach 15-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph. Winds elsewhere
are forecast to be just below critical levels, but elevated fire
weather will persist. On Tuesday, a trailing low moving through
California is forecast to eject eastward through NV/UT, bringing
more gusty winds to northern Arizona. At this time, the strongest
winds are forecast to be in east central Arizona again, and Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday. Wednesday through
Friday, general troughing continues over the western United
States, keeping Arizona in a dry and breezy pattern with very low
RH and near-critical fire weather for most areas. With the trough
near the area, daytime temperatures will continue to be a few
degrees below normal. High pressure building northward by next
weekend will bring warmer temperatures and likely less wind. There
is still a hint at some moisture increase from the east/south just
beyond the 7 day forecast, but not much confidence in this yet.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 29/00Z through Tuesday 30/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized
MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminals
KFLG and possibly KSEZ/KGCN. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-45kts through
02Z-03Z Monday, then 5-15kts overnight. Sfc winds increase again by
later Monday morning, becoming SW10-20g25-35kts by Monday afternoon.
Higher speeds over eastern AZ.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/00Z through Thursday 02/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized
MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts with light
winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Tuesday...A Red Flag
Warning continues into early this evening for all of northern
Arizona, with gusty winds and widespread low RH values. Winds will
be out of the southwest 20-30 mph gusting near 40-55 mph this
afternoon. Near-critical fire weather will continue Monday and
Tuesday area wide, with portions of east central Arizona
experiencing critical fire weather. A Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Monday and a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday in east
central Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday... Breezy and dry conditions forecast to
continue. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon with gusts
near 25-30 mph. Minimum RH values will mostly be below 10% each day,
keeping much of northern Arizona in near-critial fire weather
conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ004>016-038>040.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff