Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS65 KFGZ 221012
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
312 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with well above average temperatures
continue up until Christmas Eve night. Then, a brief pattern
change begins as a couple weak and fast moving storm systems move
through Tuesday night through Wednesday, and then Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning. This will bring temperatures
closer to late December averages as well as some light rain and
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure ridge gets flattened over the next
couple days as a couple troughs pass north of us. Only short term
impact will be a bank of mid level clouds moving through Sunday
night into Monday morning which will keep our overnight
temperatures a few degrees warmer than this morning`s readings.
Afternoon maximum temperatures today through Tuesday back off a
few degrees but remain well above average.

Come Christmas Eve night a weak and fast moving system moves
through the area. System looks a little stronger than it did last
night and although once again not a big precipitation maker, it is
conceivable that Kaibab Plateau and areas of the Rim above 6500ft
could see a brief dusting of snow Christmas morning. Temperatures
on Christmas will be about 10-15 degrees colder than Christmas
Eve, but still be on the higher edge of the normal range.

Another system follows on the heels of this one Thursday night
into Friday. This one now looks weaker than previously thought
with lower POPs and little to no QPF. Temperatures remain colder
but closer to December averages.

Early indications are that another ridge builds in by next weekend
with dry weather and above average temperatures returning to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 22/12Z through Monday 23/12Z...VFR conditions
persist with increasing SCT-BKN mid to high-level clouds 10-20k
feet AGL. Winds will be out of the west-southwest, 5-15 kts, from
18Z-01Z, becoming terrain driven thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Monday 23/12Z through Wednesday 25/12Z...VFR conditions
continue for Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR VIS/CIGS
developing after 06Z Wednesday due to scattered -SHRA/-SHSN. Light
northwest winds, 5-10 kts, develop on Monday, followed by breezier
southwest winds, 10-20 kts, Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Northwest winds return by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect the unseasonably mild
temperatures to persist each day with conditions remaining dry.
Afternoon winds, 10 to 20 mph, will be out of the west-southwest for
today, turning to the northwest on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daytime temperatures remain mild on
Tuesday, becoming colder for Wednesday and Thursday. Humidity
increases throughout the period with chances for rain and mountain
snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. The greatest chances for
wetting rains (~0.10") are for locations along and north of I-40.
Southwest winds, 10 to 20 mph, on Tuesday will shift to the
northwest on Wednesday. Light southwest winds return on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff