Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS65 KFGZ 121633
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will dominate through the forecast
period, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...Any lingering moisture will fully clear out today. Warm,
dry, and breezy conditions with clear skies are in store. Stronger
west through southwest winds have already begun to mix down
around the Western Mogollon Rim, other sites will soon follow. Some
localized fire weather concerns today, especially in western
Yavapai County, and along/directly downwind of the Mogollon Rim.
Current forecast in on track, see discussion below for more
details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...A strong ridge will continue to build
across the region through the beginning of next week. As a result
of this pattern, afternoon highs will land 5-10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Temperatures will certainly be
warm/hot across northern Arizona, but the main location for
concern will be at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. An
Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for areas below 4000` at the
Grand Canyon for Saturday and Sunday, where temperatures could
reach 110 degrees. Regardless, if you decide to enjoy some outdoor
weather this weekend, be sure to stay hydrated and seek shade
often!

Early next week, the large ridge will gradually shift eastward as
a trough begins to push in across the West Coast. This will
position Arizona in a tighter pressure gradient pattern,
increasing southwest winds across the state. Currently, winds look
to remain below any product thresholds, but we could see elevated
fire weather concerns from the combination of continued dry
conditions and breezy winds.

Model guidance begins to differ in solutions as we inch towards
the middle of next week. The main difference being noted is the
trajectory and timing of the previously mentioned trough moving
more inland. There`s greater confidence that we`ll see a slight
cooling trend and increased winds with this onset of this system,
but we can`t completely rule out the possibility of some moisture
too. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 12/12Z through Friday 13/12Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW 10-20kts, gusts to
30kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/12Z through Sunday 15/12Z...VFR conditions, no
precipitation expected. Winds SW 10-15kts, gusts to 25kts during
the days, light and variable or terrain driven overnights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Warm and dry with temperatures
about 5 degrees above average. Minimum relative humidity of 5-15
percent both days. Winds SW-W generally 10-20 mph. Higher winds are
expected across NE AZ (gusting 20-30 mph), with near critical fire
weather conditions across NE Arizona both days.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and turning hot with daytime highs
reaching 5-10 degrees above average. Expect minimum relative
humidity of 5-10 percent each afternoon. Winds generally SW 10-20
mph on Saturday and Sunday, strengthening to SW 15-25 mph gusting to
35 mph on Monday. There is a 40-50% probability of critical fire
weather conditions across NE AZ on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski/Konieczny
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff