Drexel Heights, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS65 KTWC 020850
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 AM MST Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will continue east of Tucson through the
morning becoming isolated this afternoon and dissipating by
evening. Expect another chance of showers mainly in the White
Mountains on Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions returning
to the area thereafter. High temperatures will be below normal to
start the work week then warm to above normal by the end of the
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows light to moderate showers east
of Tucson with isolated lightning strikes mainly in Cochise
County. This activity will continue into the morning hours as an
upper level low, providing the dynamics for the showers, moves
into central Arizona. On the south and backside of the low
moisture has started to decrease with GOES PWAT values around 1.1"
in western Pima County. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.30"
will be possible through the morning. By the afternoon the low
will be near the Four Corners resulting in weaker synoptic scale
lift over southeast Arizona. HREF members show isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon from
Tucson eastward. By the evening most storms will likely have
dissipated with just a couple weak showers near the AZ/NM border.
Temperatures will be 7-10 degrees below normal with Tucson seeing
around a 75 percent chance for the high temp to be less than 90
degrees.

Tuesday a small closed low will move into southern California then
open up and move into Arizona Wednesday. This is a little slower
than previous model runs with still some uncertainty in how fast
it moves into Arizona. PWAT values will still be around 100-175
percent of normal Tuesday into Wednesday. Because of this and the
approaching low there will be a slight chance for precip mainly
in the White Mountains both days. However any rain that does fall
is expected to be light. Winds will also be breezy Wednesday as
higher momentum mixes down as the low moves through. Temperatures
both days will be 4-6 degrees below normal.

For the remainder of the work week into the weekend southeast
Arizona will be under dry southwesterly flow and will see a
warming trend. The upper air pattern will be characterized by high
pressure over northern Mexico and general troughing to the north
and west. High temps will be around normal Thursday, warming back
into the triple digits for Tucson and areas west of Tucson Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA through the afternoon from KTUS south
and eastward. Best chances for terminals to be affected will be
this morning. By the afternoon activity starts to weaken and
dissipates by 03/00Z. Brief MVFR cigs with SHRA thru 12/12z,
mainly at KDUG. Winds will be SELY this morning 4-8 kts becoming
WLY 8-14 kts this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
from Tucson eastward this morning, then dissipate from west to
east this afternoon. Winds will be a little breezy this afternoon
along the AZ/NM border. Another weather system moves through
Tuesday and Wednesday leading to a slight chance for precip in the
White Mountains along with breezy winds. Thereafter expect dry
and warming conditions. By Thursday onward min RH will be back in
the single digits for lower elevation locations.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson