Chandler, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS65 KPSR 100529
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1029 PM MST Mon Jun 9 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through the period with above normal temperatures
  through the week, peaking upwards of 7-10 degrees over the
  weekend

- Fairly widespread Moderate HeatRisk through the entire week with
  increasing Major HeatRisk expected to increase by Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite WV imagery and objective analysis this afternoon shows dry
westerly flow aloft and clear skies dominating over the region as a
subtropical ridge of high pressure remains centered off the coast of
the Baja Peninsula. This is acting to keep temperatures several
degrees above normal with highs expected to top out around 105-110
degrees this afternoon. In Phoenix, the high temperature this
afternoon is expected to flirt with 110 degrees. If Phoenix does
reach 110 degrees, it will be the first occurrence of the year.
The average (1991-2020) first occurrence of 110 degrees in Phoenix
is June 11th, so this would be pretty close to normal. Meanwhile,
a shortwave trough is seen propagating through southern California
into Arizona along the northern periphery of the ridge. Support
from this weak trough combined with positive PWAT anomalies,
daytime heating and orographic lift across northern portions of
Arizona will promote the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim through the
afternoon. Across our CWA, dry and hot conditions will continue
with no rain expected.

Following the passage of the weak shortwave Tuesday, zonal flow will
prevail with the subtropical ridge pushing 500 mb heights to around
590 dm by Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures through the entire
workweek will remain rather consistent with little day-to-day
variability as daytime highs top out around 105-110 degrees each
day. As a result, fairly widespread Moderate HeatRisk will be in
place for the entire week, so everyone and those particularly
sensitive to the heat should be sure to stay cool and limit time
outdoors as well as drink plenty of water. By the end of the
workweek, the stagnant pattern will begin to change as longwave
troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble clusters
show excellent agreement that this trough will amplify off the West
Coast with the subtropical ridge shifting eastward and amplifying
into the Desert Southwest. By this weekend, ensemble guidance show
the subtropical ridge becoming centered near the AZ/NM border with
500 mb heights across the area rising to around 592-595 dm or above
the 90th climatological percentile. As a result, the hottest
temperatures of the year so far are expected this weekend into the
beginning of next week with probabilities of reaching 110 degrees
Sunday and Monday climbing in excess of 80-90% for Phoenix, Yuma,
and El Centro. Latest NBM deterministic now has highs across the
lower deserts climbing upwards of 110-115 degrees during this time.
If these trends hold, the first Extreme Heat products of the year
will likely be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Tuesday evening under
mostly clear skies. Trends in wind speeds and directional shifts
will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours. This will include
periodic afternoon/early evening gusts 15-20kt (slightly
stronger, 20-25 kts, at KBLH) with minimal operational impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through the week with above normal
temperatures. Min RHs will be around 10-15% through much of the
week, while Max RHs range between 20-50% (poorest in the eastern
districts). Winds will tend to follow their typical diurnal
tendencies with periods of modest afternoon upslope gustiness.
Temperatures are forecast to further heat up this upcoming weekend
with afternoon highs in excess of 110 degrees likely by Sunday
across the lower deserts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Young