Utqiaġvik, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXAK69 PAFG 232144
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1244 PM AKST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A tight pressure gradient will bring north winds up to
70 mph through the Bering Strait and at St. Lawrence Island
through today before winds gradually weaken through this week. A
deformation band will set up over the northwest Interior, bringing
heavy snow from Kaltag to Ambler to Bettles on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A strong Arctic front will push west to east across the
state Friday through this weekend, bringing much colder
temperatures, strong west winds, and blowing snow to higher
elevations of the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Winds along the Dalton Highway Summits will gust as high as 45
  to 50 mph through this evening and continue to blow 20 to 30 mph
  through Tuesday afternoon. Blowing snow will reduce visibility
  to 1/2 mile or less at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains
  in effect until Tuesday afternoon.

- An extended period of snow in the N Interior will bring 2 to 4
  inches of snow for areas north of the line from Tanana to Eagle
  through today. On Wednesday, areas west of the Dalton Highway
  can expect 4 to 7 more inches of snow with another 2 to 3 inches
  on Thursday. A Winter Storm Warning will will be in effect for
  areas west of Bettles from this evening through Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Winds through the Alaska Range passes will gust as high as 55
  mph this evening and overnight tonight, and up to 40 mph
  tomorrow. Total snow amounts on the north side of the Alaska
  Range are expected to be 3 inches or less. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect for the AK Range through noon Tuesday.

- High temperatures in parts of the Interior will remain mostly in
  the teens today through Wednesday. The Yukon Flats will see
  highs near or above zero during this period before a cooling
  trend begins.

- Fairbanks may see a dusting of snow late this evening and
  overnight, though amounts will be 1 inch or less.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds with gusts up to 70 mph near St. Lawrence Island
  will blow through the Bering Strait today. Wind will continue to
  gust greater than 50 mph through this early week, then start to
  weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday. A High Wind Warning is in
  effect for the W Seward Peninsula Coast and St. Lawrence Island
  until Tuesday night.

- A widespread and long-lasting period of snow will impact the
  Western Interior and S West Coast beginning tonight. The
  heaviest band of snow looks like it will bring 6 to 12 inches of
  snow to the area between Kaltag to Shungnak to Bettles, from
  Monday morning to Wednesday morning. 3 to 6 inches of snow are
  expected during this time period for most other areas except the
  W Seward Peninsula and far W Brooks Range near Red Dog Mine,
  which will get little to nothing. A Winter Storm Warning is in
  effect through Wednesday afternoon.

- Tuesday into Wednesday, the combination of strong winds and
  falling snow along the Norton Sound and YK Delta coasts could
  lead to reductions in visibility to 1/2 mile. A Winter Weather
  Advisory will be in effect from Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon.

- Much colder temperatures expected Thursday and Friday with highs
  in the teens below and lows in the 20s and 30s below.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A band of light snow will spread north and west across the
  Brooks Range today and this evening, reaching the E North Slope
  and Arctic Coast tonight before slowly pushing west and
  lingering over the Central and Eastern North Slope and Arctic
  Coast through the middle of the week. 2 to 4 inches are expected
  over the duration with 6 to 10 inches in the Brooks Range.

- Northerly gap winds in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass will get up to
  35 mph with gusts near 50 mph today. Blowing snow will reduce
  visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect through Wednesday morning.

- Much colder temperatures expected Thursday and Friday with highs
  in the teens below and lows in the 20s and 30s below.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...Weak high pressure persists in
the Arctic while a 970 mb low weakens near Kodiak Island. A 943 mb
low near the far western Aleutians has a NE gradient across the
state at the surface. Aloft, the major feature will be a
developing NE/SW oriented deformation band stretching from the
Yukon Delta to the Central Arctic Coast. This feature will bring
heavy snow from Norton Sound to the NW Interior to the Central
Brooks Range Tuesday and Wednesday. This band will weaken
Wednesday night. A strong Arctic front will push west to east
across the area Friday and Saturday, bringing much colder
temperatures and strong west winds and blowing snow to higher
elevations.

Models are not in good agreement on the exact placement of the
heaviest snow over the northwest Interior. The GFS continues to
move the band of heaviest snow on Tuesday further west with each
model run while the ECMWF continues to move it further east. The
forecast has reflected the ECMWF, and we will maintain areas
similar to yesterday evening`s ECMWF run.

For the forecast today, we will add a Winter Storm Warning for
heavy snow for the South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range, make
minor changes to the timing of south winds through Alaska Range
passes, and otherwise make little change. We believe our snow
amounts and areas are in line with most probable solutions based
on the current model guidance available.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...A strong Arctic front
will push west to east across the area Friday and Saturday,
bringing much colder temperatures and strong west winds and
blowing snow to higher elevations. There looks to be some light
snow just ahead of the front with high pressure building in behind
it. The rest of the extended forecast looks drier and colder than
normal across the forecast area. By Sunday morning, expect
widespread lows in the -20s and -30s across the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847>850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ812-832.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-828.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-825.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-808-809-852-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-851-854-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

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