Tanaina, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXAK68 PAFC 150039
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Clear skies leading to warm and dry conditions persisting across
Interior Southcentral. Coastal Southcentral continues to see a
steady layer of marine stratus blocking out the sun, with periods
of mist and drizzle. Interior Southcentral may see isolated areas
of showers late this afternoon due to some cumulus development.
High temperatures in many areas of Southcentral have reached the
70 degree mark, however some locations closer to bodies of water
are expectedly remains relatively cooler. Locations like Seward,
Whittier, and Valdez to expect a relatively consistent sea-breeze
picking up the the afternoon hours, given the strong diurnal
heating trend. Additionally, over interior Southcentral haze
originating from Canadian wildfires will become increasingly
apparent. Strongest over the Copper River Basin, the Mat-Su
Valleys, and visible in Anchorage, this haze will appear brownish
and slightly reduce visibility along the horizon.

The weather pattern late this weekend into early next week will
remain mostly consistent to the current pattern. Upper-level flow
and the arrival of more favorable convective patterns, including
the entrance of several shortwaves from the east. This creates a
favorable pattern for showers and thunderstorms with each passing
trough. As such, thunderstorm potential similarly is expected to
rise early next week, currently expected mostly for the Susitna
Valley, the Copper River Basin, with elevated thunderstorm
initiation off of the Talkeetna Mountains becoming increasingly
likely given the quick deterioration of mountain snowpack.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

Unsettled weather continues for Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands, albeit less active than what we`ve seen in
recent days. The primary weather hazards to watch for will be hot
temperatures and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for Southwest
Alaska. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, a North Pacific
low moving towards the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
tonight will bring winds to gale force, as well as periods of
moderate to heavy rain. Otherwise, scattered rain showers and
winds up to about 20-30 kt for the remainder of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands.

The primary forecast challenge continues to be thunderstorm
potential for interior Southwest Alaska. Max temperatures in the
mid to high 70s over Kuskokwim Valley will provide good surface-
based instability for robust convection. The difficulty is
ascertaining where the lift will be; easterly shortwaves propagate
off an upper low in the Gulf, but models continue to struggle with
the location of these waves. This is especially the case for
Tuesday afternoon, when 12z models differed over whether the best
forcing would be over Kuskokwim Valley or further south in
interior Bristol Bay. Generally, if you`ll be outdoors in interior
Southwest Alaska the next few days, be prepared for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms.

-KC

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Forecast models continue to agree with the overall development
and changes to the broad scale features across the region. A
closed upper level low over the Southern Gulf of Alaska drifts
Southeastward through Thursday. Greatest uncertainty rests with
the transient systems rotating around the closed upper level low
across the Aleutians and Bering. The body of the upper low is
expected to sag closer to the Aleutians through the forecast
period. A number of shortwaves along the Eastern flank help erode
an upper ridge that forms through the Central Mainland, linking
with a closed center over the Arctic coast. the ridge continues to
edge towards the Canadian border through the weekend.

Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be the order of
the day over Interior Alaska, mostly South of the Alaska Range
through Friday. A somewhat strong North Pacific surface low
Wednesday spreads its locally moderate rain and gale force winds
with high end gale force gusts across the Central Aleutians for
Thursday. As the low tracks over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol
Bay, then back into the Central Bering, its front brings locally
moderate rain and gusty winds over the Northern Bering into
Western Alaska, AKPEN, Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral
coasts through the weekend.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Breezy
south-to-southeasterly winds will veer to more southwesterly and
decrease by this evening, but periods of southeasterly winds may
still be able to work back in. Winds will remain dominantly out of
the south to southeast Sunday.

&&


$$