Steele Creek, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXAK69 PAFG 200016
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Potentially heavy snow along the West Coast, Western Interior, and
Central Interior Tuesday through Thursday. Areas of heavy snow are
likely, but the distribution of the heaviest snow is still very
uncertain. Gusty coastal winds may lead to periods of reduced
visibility due to falling and blowing snow along the West Coast
and Western North Slope Sunday through Thursday. Cold conditions
in the Interior will briefly warm with the snow before cold
returns late next week. Relatively calm weather expected through
the weekend ahead of snowier weather next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold temperatures persist with lows in the -20s to -40s across
  the Interior. The coldest temperatures are expected in valleys
  under clear skies.

- Heavy snow possible throughout the Central Interior Tuesday
  through Thursday. Confidence is still too low to give a good
  snowfall estimate, but snowfall totals could range from 3 to 12
  inches across the Central Interior with significantly less in
  the Eastern Interior. Temperatures briefly warm to above 0 with
  this snowfall.

- Potentially even colder temperatures follow the brief warmup
  with high confidence in Interior low temperatures in the -30s to
  -50s late next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A N-S oriented front stalls along the West Coast early Sunday
  morning through Monday morning.
 - Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches expected.
 - Gusty southerly winds through the Bering Strait and along the
    Chukchi Sea coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility
    due to blowing snow. A winter storm watch has been issued for
    possible blizzard conditions.

- As the stalled front weakens, another system moves towards the
  West Coast Monday morning. This brings even more snow of 2 to 4
  inches to the West Coast and portions of the Western Interior
  Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Total snow including the
  stalled front of 3 to 7 inches.

- Another weak system brings additional snowfall to areas of the
  West Coast Tuesday night through Thursday. Confidence is too low
  to give a good snowfall estimate.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Additional snowfall for the Eastern North Slope through Friday.
  Accumulations between 1" and 3" can be expected along with
  westerly gusts between 30 and 45 mph. The heaviest snow and
  strongest winds are expected further east, strongest near Barter
  Island. Winds diminish rapidly early Saturday morning.

- Southerly winds increase late Saturday night into Sunday with
  gusts up to 30 mph possible west of Point Barrow and up to 20
  mph possible east of Point Barrow.
 - The strongest gusts of 30 to 50 mph expected along the
    Lisburne Peninsula and at Point Hope. A winter storm watch has
    been issued for possible blizzard conditions.

- Another system approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing
  widespread snowfall and some gusty winds to the Western Arctic
  Coast and Brooks Range. Confidence is too low to give a good
  snowfall estimate at this time. Gusty winds could lead to
  periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow late next
  week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Friday through Monday.
At the start of the forecast period, Friday, a strong 1036
millibar high pressure in the North Pacific extends a ridge
pattern north through the Bering Strait. This feature effectively
blocks most westerly flow causing low pressure systems and
potential storms to move further north into Eastern Siberia before
they can reach Northern Alaska. A sufficiently strong low pressure
system could suppress the ridge pattern as it moves north of it
and reach into Northern Alaska. High surface pressure over the
Alaskan Interior and deep cold air that has settled there keeps
most of the region stable until another low can suppress the ridge
and make it into Alaska. There are 3 systems moving through the
pattern with the potential to do this.

The first moves through Saturday night into Sunday as a north-
south oriented front that stalls over the West Coast. This stalled
front will bring southerly winds and widespread light snow to the
West Coast, but will not be strong enough to push out the high
pressure in the Interior. It will however be strong enough to
help suppress the ridge for the next system.

The second system approaches the West Coast late Monday and is
more likely to reach into the Interior. This next system is
stronger and more organized with the potential to bring widespread
heavy snow across the West Coast, Western Interior, and Central
Interior, but the exact position and strength of this low will be
largely determined by how much it can suppress the Bering Sea
ridge as it approaches. There is still some uncertainty as to how
these two features will interact, but the most likely outcome is
that the low is able to move into Northwestern Alaska bringing
additional widespread snow to the West Coast and Western Interior
as well as weakening the high pressure over the Central and
Eastern Interior.

The third system is a weaker surface low that follows the second
system and effectively reinforces it. This allows snow to push
further into the Interior allowing widespread heavy snowfall to
reach through the Central Interior, although areas east of
Fairbanks are likely to see significantly less snow. The area of
heaviest snowfall from these 3 systems is still very uncertain
since it will be dependent upon how each of these 3 low pressure
systems interact with the Bering Sea ridge and with each other.
Snowfall is likely across most of the state, but there is too much
uncertainty to be able to give a good snowfall estimate at this
time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Monday night through next Friday.
Tuesday through Thursday will be dominated by a series of low
pressure systems bringing widespread snowfall to the West Coast,
Western Interior, and Central Interior. Breezy winds accompany
this snowfall which may bring periods of reduced visibility due to
falling and blowing snow. There is too much uncertainty to give a
good snowfall estimate at this time, however what does fall is
expected to be fluffy with a high snow to liquid ratio. Warmer
temperatures are expected in Western and Central Interiors as this
snow disrupts to cold air that had previously built into the
region, but the cold will quickly return afterwards. Friday
through next weekend will once again be cold, potentially the
coldest of the winter thus far. Cold weather is likely to remain
through the end of December.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-815-820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

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