Ridgeway, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXAK68 PAFC 181641 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
841 AM AKDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The large dome of high pressure that has been centered over inland
Alaska will begin to settle southwards as a large low drops south
across the Northwest Territories of Canada. Its front will help
nudge the upper ridge more over Southcentral as the low over the
eastern Gulf continues to drop south along the coast before moving
into the PacNW. This will allow for clearer skies and warmer
temperatures over much of Southcentral. The warmest temperatures
should be felt in the Copper River Basin where afternoon
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s the next several
days. The Mat-Su Valley and inland Kenai Peninsula will also see
temperatures warm nicely with highs in the mid to upper 70s by
Thursday. Coastal areas should see temperatures in the 60s,
especially for areas that remain mostly cloud free.

Convection will be mainly tied to the slopes of the Wrangells,
Talkeetna Mountains, and Alaska Range. Given lack of flow with high
pressure sitting overhead, storms will be pulse-like in nature
resulting in brief downpours, gusty outflow winds, and lightning.
Better instability axis will be over the Susitna Valley where
moisture advection will be a bit more enhanced under southerly mid-
level flow.

On Friday, a low over the Central Aleutians will lift a front up
into the western Gulf bringing rain and gusty gap winds to the AKPEN
and Kodiak Island by late Friday. The front will weaken as it
encounters the ridge and precipitation chances look to rapidly drop
off as the front washes out near the Barren Islands by Saturday
morning.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Thunderstorm activity has diminished overnight with a lesser
chance for reinvigoration this afternoon. A slightly more stable
environment develops over Southwest Alaska as an easterly wave
moves in, bringing increased cloud cover and light rain showers.
The wave moves through relatively quickly, moving off to the
northwest by Thursday morning. Clearing skies and afternoon
warming will allow for another round of thunderstorms for
Southwest Alaska. Primary area for thunderstorm activity will
again be in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, spilling into interior
Bristol Bay and eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta. There is
a lesser chance for thunderstorms reaching as far south as New
Stuyahok or as far west as Bethel.

Out west, a front and associated low push over the Central Aleutians
today. Widespread small craft winds and rain as well as a core of
gale force winds move over the Central Aleutians into the southern
Bering Sea through this evening. The front will continue tracking
in a north-northeasterly manner, stretching across much of the
Bering and over the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula by Thursday afternoon. Expect wet and windy conditions
across the Aleutian Islands, including the Pribilof Islands, and
Bering Sea over the next couple of days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern across the Alaskan region continues under a
broad upper level trough centered mostly over the Bering.
Shortwaves and transient lows slip off across the Alaska Peninsula
into the Gulf of Alaska. These transient lows undercut a ridge
that extends across Northern Alaska, with the Southern portions
sliding into Canada. Individual models and model ensembles support
the large scale pattern through the weekend, but begin to vary
somewhat during the second half of the forecast period.

Scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms will dot much
of the Southern Mainland through the period. Continued warmer
temperatures increase the likelihood of convection through
Tuesday, especially around the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior.
A weakening Central Aleutian surface low extends a front over the
Northern Bering into Western Alaska. Areas of rain associated with
the front continue over across Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN
into Kodiak Island through Sunday. Further West, a well developed
Eastern Asian low and front pushes across the Western and Central
Aleutians and Bering through Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to low VFR ceilings will erode this morning, lifting
and scattering out by later this afternoon and evening. Winds will
be light and variable this morning becoming more southwesterly by
tonight.

&&


$$