Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXAK69 PAFG 072330
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low in the High Arctic continues to eject a series of
shortwaves south across Northern Alaska, which will culminate with a
cold front today into Monday building in out of the northwest. This
system will continue to support widespread snow across the North
Slope and Brooks Range, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for central portions of the range for the Dalton Highway. Farther
south, precipitation is expected to be rain in the form of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with higher elevations of the
Alaska Range expected to see snow.

Following showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the main front
today, steadier precipitation rates are likely in a more organized
band as it works southeast from the NW Arctic Coast into the
Interior tonight into Monday as isolated thunderstorms shift
southeast. Colder conditions will accompany this front, with below
normal temperatures expected to build in early next week as lows
regionwide drop the 20s/30s/40s. Looking ahead, warmer and drier
conditions are expected to return midweek onward as daily isolated
showers and thunderstorms persist.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend
  into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorm chances build in across the Interior.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be along a
  line from the Upper Kuskokwim to the Yukon Flats, today, ahead
  of the cold front pushing southeast.

- Gusty west/southwest winds will increase across the Interior
  today, with gusts up to around 20-40 mph through Monday.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night and
  Tuesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for most, with
  coldest valleys dropping to around freezing. We will continue to
  monitor the potential for frost/freeze headlines for Fairbanks
  during this timeframe.

- More widespread showers expected across the Interior on Monday
  with the frontal passage. Showers will become more isolated
  starting Tuesday, with warmer and drier conditions building back
  across the Interior Wednesday onwards as daily isolated showers
  persist.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through
  tonight, with highs cooler on the coast in the 30s/40s/50s and
  warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- A cold front building in out of the northwest today will support
  scattered rain and snow showers as a colder airmass builds in.
  Showers will shift inland and towards the Y-K Delta later in the
  day Sunday into Monday. Light snow accumulations will remain
  confined to the Northern Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast.

- Colder and drier conditions on Tuesday will give way to a
  warming trend Wednesday onwards as temperatures return to more
  seasonable levels with highs rebounding into the 50s/60s/70s
  regionwide.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Widespread light snow is expected across the Arctic
  Coast/Plains, with heavier totals in the Brooks Range. A Winter
  Weather Advisory is now in effect tonight through Monday for the
  Central Brooks Range for snow accumulations of 5-10 inches and
  wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Below normal temperatures continue today north of the Brooks
  Range with highs/lows in the 20s/30s while warmer air remains
  situated to the south of and in the Brooks Range where highs in
  the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers will continue to build
  in out of the northwest across the North Slope, expanding over
  the Brooks Range as a cold front passes over the region.
  Heaviest precipitation is expected on the northern side of the
  Brooks Range.

- Behind the Sunday/Monday cold front, isolated to scattered snow
  showers will continue for Tuesday ahead of warmer and drier
  conditions returning Wednesday onwards. Highs are expected to
  build back into the 50s/60s/70s with 30s/40s along the coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Broad southwesterly flow continues across much of the state with
the 505 decameter low in the Arctic. A weaker low, around 535
decameters, continues to move westerly across Gulf toward the
Alaska Panhandle. Attention pivots toward a cold front, in
association with the Arctic low, that will push SE from the
Chukchi over the next couple of days. Today, areas out ahead of
the front, specifically along a line from the Yukon Flats to the
Upper Kuskokwim, will see the potential for thunderstorm formation
as steeper lapse rates move in. This trough will also tighten
heights, aloft, which will allow the potential for gusty winds
from the West Coast to the Central Interior today. Daytime heating
will also be more sufficient out ahead of the front which will
further support thunderstorm chances. Model soundings along the
line from the Upper Kuskokwim to the Yukon Flats show adequate
amounts of speed sheer which may promote chances for small hail
growth. In addition, sounds are also showing deep inverted `V`
shape from the surface to around 5000 ft. This suggests that some
of these storms have the potential to produce gusty down bursts.

The upper-level trough will continue to dig south, pushing the
front farther SE on Monday. This will allow for thunderstorm
potential along the Eastern Interior and Upper Tanana as the front
will not have passed over just yet. Rain will be the main precip
type for most of the Interior. Areas over the Brooks Range will
see mostly snow with the cooler temperatures still in place. In
addition, this setup will provide widespread snowfall across the
Brooks Range throughout the day today into the early hours on
Monday. A Winter Weather advisory remains in effect for the
Central Brooks Range. Total snowfall accumulations are expected to
be between 5 and 10 inches. The gusty winds, mentioned earlier,
mixed with the snow could produce areas of blowing snow at times
as well.

A more widespread swath of precipitation is expected under the
front itself, bringing another round of showers across the
Interior on Monday. Colder temperatures will accompany the front
as it works its way south, with lows regionwide in the
20s/30s/40s. We will continue to monitor the potential for
frost/freeze headlines for Fairbanks during this timeframe, which
will be centered around Monday night and Tuesday night when
temperatures are expected to be coldest. This will be followed by
a gradual warmup through the rest of the week. More on this in the
extended portion of the AFD.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
On Wednesday, the big upper low over the Arctic will loosen its grip
as a ridge over Canada and the Aleutians begins to merge. This
brings a warm up to most of Northern Alaska through next weekend.
While ridging usually means warm and dry, this will be a bit of a
dirty ridge since there is a remnant low in the Gulf. This means
there`ll likely be clouds around with showers and storms across the
region. Exact details with the placement of showers and storms are
uncertain as numerous shortwaves meander around Northern Alaska.
Then towards the weekend, there is a bit more uncertainty with what
happens with the ridge over Canada. However, compared to yesterday,
there is more consensus that the ridge will set up along or just to
the west of the CONUS west coast late next week and into the
weekend. This leaves room for a low around the Alaska Peninsula or
western Gulf of Alaska which would continue to provide southerly
flow to much of Northern Alaska. What all of this is saying is, a
return of summer-like weather is expected in the extended period
with more widespread showers, thunderstorms and warmer temperatures.
Speaking of temperatures, there may be a prolonged period of mid 60s
to mid 70s, potentially warmer, in the Interior with 50s/60s along
the West Coast and 40s to 60s from the North Slope to the Brooks
Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday afternoon will have the best chances for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the southern and eastern Interior
for the next few days. Areas around McGrath, to Fairbanks, to the
Yukon Flats, will see convective showers developing and tracking
eastward through the evening with an occasional thunderstorm mixed
in. The greatest chance for lightning appears to be in the Eastern
Interior, as storms that trigger off the White Mountains move east.
Mixing heights for these storms are generally above 5000 feet which
may facilitate gusty winds near downdrafts and dry lightning.
Westerly winds will be particularly strong for most areas on the
West Coast and in the Interior through Tuesday evening as a series
of troughs orbiting the main arctic low slide west to east across
the Brooks Range. Gusts up to 35 mph will increase spread potential
if any surface fires develop.

A cold front will begin to swing southeast across the state on
Monday. As it does, it will bring widespread, light showers through
the day Monday. Behind the front, temperatures will be cool, low
60Fs of below for most of Northern Alaska, but also dry with minimum
relative humidities in Interior valleys bottoming out in the 20s
after the showers end on Tuesday with similar conditions on
Wednesday.

Temperatures in the Interior should warm back up to near average,
upper 60s near 70F, by Wednesday and continue to gradually warm as a
ridge builds in through the latter half of the week. The ridge will
also suppress precipitation chances. However, lighter winds and
positive moisture advection should help mitigate fire weather
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with
APRFC`s breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the
Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the
Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice
reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming
near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more
just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through early next
week with warming temperatures expected Tuesday onwards. By as soon
as Thursday and Friday, highs in the 50s and 60s will be in place
across the Arctic Plains with 30s/40s along the Arctic Coast. This
will likely accelerate snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope
rivers. With the recent cooldown and drop overall in most river
levels, this will likely give enough room for new snowmelt to join
the channels and help mitigate any significant flooding concerns at
this time. Stay tuned.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Bianco
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke
HYDROLOGY......MacKay