Butte, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 151227
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Relative warm and dry weather is expected for Southcentral AK for
the remainder of this weekend and into the start of the work week.
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery currently shows low-level clouds
across the Gulf of Alaska, as well as expanding northward up
along the western flank of the Kenai Peninsula. This push of
maritime air up Cook Inlet is due in part to return flow around
high pressure centered across the Gulf of Alaska, with broad
anticyclonic low-level flow resulting in the return of this more
maritime airmass. As a result, temps will be just a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, though abundant sunlight and dry air aloft
should help dissipate or shrink this cloud deck as the day
progresses.

Interior Southcentral may see isolated areas of showers late this
afternoon once again due to some cumulus development. High
temperatures in many areas of Southcentral will reach the upper 60s
to a little above 70 degrees. However, some locations closer to
bodies of water are expected to remain relatively cooler.
Locations like Seward, Whittier, and Valdez are to expect a
relatively consistent sea-breeze picking up the the afternoon
hours, given the strong diurnal heating trend. Additionally, over
interior Southcentral haze originating from Canadian wildfires
will become increasingly apparent. Strongest over the Copper River
Basin, the Mat-Su Valleys, and visible in Anchorage, this haze
will appear brownish and slightly reduce visibility along the
horizon.

The weather pattern through early next week will remain mostly
consistent to the current pattern. Upper-level flow and the arrival
of more favorable convective patterns, including the entrance of
several shortwaves from the east. This creates a favorable pattern
for showers and thunderstorms with each passing trough. As such,
thunderstorm potential similarly is expected to rise early next
week, currently expected mostly for the Susitna Valley, the Copper
River Basin, with elevated thunderstorm initiation off of the
Talkeetna Mountains becoming increasingly likely given the quick
deterioration of mountain snowpack.

-CL/Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Warmer temperatures continue across Southwest Alaska, reaching
mid to upper 60`s along the coast and mid to upper 70`s further
inland. Max temperatures in the mid to high 70s over Kuskokwim
Valley will provide good surface-based instability for robust
convection over the next couple of days. Afternoon/evening
thunderstorms (isolated to scattered) are expected through
Tuesday for these inland areas.

Over the Bering Sea, a quasi stationary low sits in the northern
Bering Sea just west of Saint Matthew Island. A trough extending
off of this low reaching into the North Pacific where a secondary
low has developed in the base and moves towards the Aleutian
Islands. Though the low is expected to remain south of the Chain,
areas of small craft winds and rain showers will bombard the
Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula today into Monday.

The two lows will separate as the North Pacific low drifts
south late Monday afternoon.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Forecast models continue to agree with the overall development
and changes to the broad scale features across the region. A
closed upper level low over the Southern Gulf of Alaska drifts
Southeastward through Thursday. Greatest uncertainty rests with
the transient systems rotating around the closed upper level low
across the Aleutians and Bering. The body of the upper low is
expected to sag closer to the Aleutians through the forecast
period. A number of shortwaves along the Eastern flank help erode
an upper ridge that forms through the Central Mainland, linking
with a closed center over the Arctic coast. the ridge continues to
edge towards the Canadian border through the weekend.

Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be the order of
the day over Interior Alaska, mostly South of the Alaska Range
through Friday. A somewhat strong North Pacific surface low
Wednesday spreads its locally moderate rain and gale force winds
with high end gale force gusts across the Central Aleutians for
Thursday. As the low tracks over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol
Bay, then back into the Central Bering, its front brings locally
moderate rain and gusty winds over the Northern Bering into
Western Alaska, AKPEN, Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral
coasts through the weekend.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A low stratus deck, between 800 to 2000 feet is just to
the west of the terminal early this morning. There is uncertainty
in whether this deck is able to push eastward and over the
terminal. Regardless of some possible brief MVFR to IFR ceilings
early this morning, ceilings should lift back to VFR later this
morning once temperatures begin to warm up. Up-inlet flow also
persists with southwest winds generally 10 kts or less.

&&


$$