Troy, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

203
FXUS64 KBMX 091046
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
546 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A level 2 out of 5 chance for strong to severe storms on Monday
   as additional clusters of showers and storms develops to the
   west/northwest and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging
   straight-line winds will be the main hazard with low chance for
   a brief tornado

 - Low chance for localized flash flooding, especially for
   locations that have seen heavy rainfall over the past two days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025

As of writing, we in a bit of a convective lull as
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern Gulf coast,
across central MS, and back across east TX. We are expecting 2
rounds of convection across Central AL today. The first will move
into the area around sunrise as a H5 vort max ejects ahead of our
next shortwave. While shear and lapse rates don`t look too
impressive with this first wave, a plume of higher instabilities
will spread across the region from the south-southwest. The second
wave of convection looks to move into the area during the afternoon
hours as activity develops along a remnant outflow from the storms
currently ongoing in east Texas. It remains fairly tricky to narrow
in on a time frame with this second round as the latest CAMs are a
few hours off from each other. We will need to monitor the trends
through the day to lock in on a more accurate time. Regardless,
general time looks to be mid afternoon through the evening hours.
Diurnal heating will help provide better chances for strong to
severe storms this afternoon. It is also likely that we see
increased SRH values as the convective outflow spreads across the
state. This will help support a brief tornado or two in addition to
the damaging wind and large hail threat. SPC maintains a Slight
(level 2 of out 5) risk for the region today.

In addition to the severe threat, we will need to monitor our flash
flooding potential. Recent rainfall has left our soils fairly
saturated. With that said, it won`t take much for some localized
flooding impacts to develop, especially if storms track over
repeated area. Forecast soundings hint at a heavy rainfall threat as
well with a deep warm cloud depth and PWATs around 2". WPC has
included much of the CWA in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of
Excessive Rainfall today.

Patchy fog is likely again overnight, especially for those that have
seen plentiful rainfall over the last couple of days. On Tuesday, a
boundary looks to move south and stall across the region with drier
air working in behind it. Upper troughing will begin to push east
with weak ridging attempting to build in. This will help lower rain
chances as we head towards the middle of the work week. However, we
hold onto some low to medium PoPs, generally across our southern
areas, as moisture convergence remains maximized south of the
boundary.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025

Ridging begins to build in across the region on Wednesday as the
main upper level trough axis shift eastward. The previously stalled
frontal boundary should remain to our south, which should help
suppress the higher rain chances to the southern half of Central AL
for Wednesday. By Thursday, another trough has moved into the Great
Plains, stretching into the Western Gulf. This will lead to
increased advection of deep moisture across Central AL Thursday
through the weekend, leading to higher rain chances. The biggest
question with this activity is coverage and forcing - guidance hints
at some weak shortwaves that could move through Friday into Sunday
leading to higher than typical coverage for thunderstorm activity.
Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but confidence
in any organized severe threat is low.

We`ll likely see increasing temperatures through the end of the week
with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices
touching on triple-digits Friday through Sunday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025

Little change with this TAF update. Showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to move into the state at this time. MGM/TCL will be the
first to see this activity, followed by the remaining terminals.
This first wave will last through midday. Maintained the PROB30
groups for the second wave of activity as there are some timing
differences to work out. Activity will clear out of the area 00z
or shortly after. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely towards the end of
the period.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area today with lower chances tomorrow. The warm/moist
airmass will remain in place through the next several days,keeping
RHs well above critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  65  85  60 /  70  60  20   0
Anniston    82  67  84  64 /  70  70  30  10
Birmingham  82  67  85  65 /  70  60  20  10
Tuscaloosa  82  68  86  65 /  80  60  30  10
Calera      82  68  85  66 /  80  70  30  10
Auburn      82  69  84  68 /  80  80  50  20
Montgomery  87  69  85  66 /  90  80  50  20
Troy        88  68  86  66 /  80  80  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...95/Castillo