Prichard, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS64 KMOB 021735
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New Aviation...

MVFR to VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through this
evening. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop tonight with IFR
conditions possible. VFR conditions return by late Thursday
morning. /13


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large upper trof over the western and central states moves
little through Friday, then finally progresses slowly into the
eastern CONUS through Tuesday. A surface low lifts from the Plains
to across the Great Lakes and gradually brings a frontal boundary
towards the region that extends from Tennessee to eastern Texas
by Thursday before stalling. A surface ridge meanwhile remains in
place over the southeastern states, and this pattern tightens the
pressure gradient sufficiently to result in breezy conditions for
much of the area today. Have opted to issue a Wind Advisory from
10 am to 7 pm roughly along and west of I-65 for wind gusts up to
40 mph. In addition, it appears that minor coastal flooding is
possible mainly along the Mobile Bay Causeway, and have issued a
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 am until 6 pm for this concern. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties
until 9 am this morning, by which time any lingering fog should
have dissipated as the southerly flow increases. Will need to also
monitor for additional fog development near the coast tonight.
Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area through
Thursday, then small pops follow for portions of southeast
Mississippi on Friday as a series of modest shortwaves move across
the region.

As the large upper trof begins to advances towards the eastern
states, another surface low is expected to develop over the
southern Plains and bring a cold front through the forecast area
mainly during the day on Sunday. It appears that a shortwave trof
(or series of shortwaves) embedded in the large upper trof pattern
will move across the forecast region Saturday into Sunday morning
which could aid/result in a line of convection moving through the
area either ahead of or along the approaching cold front. Have
gone with slight chance to chance pops for the western third of
the area on Saturday with slight chance to likely pops following
for Saturday night, with the highest pops over portions of
southeast Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are expected for
Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg are indicated over the
western half of the area on Saturday which then spread over the
remainder of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of
the cold front. A 40 knot 850 mb jet develops on Saturday and may
strengthen a bit more Saturday night before tapering off on
Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor this time period for a
strong to severe storm risk. SPC has included a portion of the
area west of I-65 in a 15% severe storm risk for Saturday into
Saturday night, with the central and eastern portions of the area
in a 15% risk for Sunday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect
through Sunday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected
through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
Alabama Gulf waters until 1 pm Thursday, and is also in effect for
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 3 pm this afternoon.
Small craft should exercise caution over much of the remainder of
the area. Dense fog is expected over bays and near shore waters
until mid morning, and will need to monitor for additional fog
development tonight. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  82  69  81  69  82  67  78 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  30  80
Pensacola   70  77  70  78  70  78  71  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  70
Destin      68  78  69  78  70  78  71  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  60
Evergreen   65  86  66  86  64  86  66  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20  80
Waynesboro  69  87  68  86  68  86  65  73 /   0  10   0  20   0  30  60  80
Camden      67  85  68  87  66  87  66  75 /   0  10   0   0   0  10  30  90
Crestview   65  83  65  84  64  83  66  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263-
     264.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670.

&&

$$

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