Prichard, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS64 KMOB 221135
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions with north to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots
expected.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 434 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A northwest flow aloft will become westerly today and southwest
on Monday. This will maintain a dry and cool airmass across the
area today. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 50s inland
to upper 50s along the coast. The upper flow becomes southwest on
Monday, allowing temps to warm slightly. Highs on Monday will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s. Overnight lows will slowly moderate
with lows tonight in the upper 20s and low 30s inland to low 40s
along the coast. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 30s
inland to mid/upper 40s along the coast. /13

SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERMS...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Inconsistency in the Short/Extended Terms remains consistent. The
development of a surface low off the Atlantic Coast of the Southeast
in the end of the Near Term the cause. This surface low moves north
along the East Coast as an upper level shortwave trough over the
Plains Tuesday swings east over the Mississippi River and Southeast
Wednesday. The surface low off the East Coast slows the eastward
shift of a surface ridge between the Appalachians and East Coast,
keeping the forecast area and nearby under drier easterly
flow longer, especially over land areas. The surface low moves off
Tuesday into Tuesday night, allowing a more southeast to southerly
low level flow return to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western portions of the Southeast (to varying extents depending upon
the model) as the surface ridge shifts east. This allows rain
showers with a few thunderstorms to return to land portions of the
forecast area Wednesday. Instability remains low, so coverage of
thunderstorms remains low along with any risk of strong storms, much
less marginally severe. The slower passage of the upper trough in
the ECMWF results in a wetter and slightly cooler forecast than the
GFS. The ensembles are advertising a middle of the road forecast so
have went that direction for this portion of the forecast.

For Thursday into Saturday, an upper ridge moves over the eastern
Conus, deflecting a closed upper low moving over the Plains Thursday
to the northeast, well north of the forecast area. The forecast area
remains under moist southerly flow into the weekend, with daily
rain showers. Instability remains even more limited, so am not
expecting any rumbles to mix in. The ECMWF becomes the warmer model,
but remains the wetter one. Ensemble again are advertising a middle
of the road forecast, so have leaned that way for the last few days
of the forecast.

Looking at temperatures, the combination of increasing moisture
levels along with the passing upper ridge will bring an increase in
temperatures into the weekend. High temperatures Tuesday in the mid
to upper 60s rise into the low to mid 70s for Friday and Saturday.
Low temperatures Tuesday night in the mid 40s over the northeastern
half of the forecast area, low to mid 50s southwest rise into the
mid 50s to around 60 Friday night.

The risk of danger rip currents remains generally low through
most of the week, with increasing incoming swell from southerly
winds over the Gulf remains modest. Swell increases the end of the
week, with the Rip Risk rising to moderate to high Friday into the
weekend.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A moderate northerly flow will continue through
early this morning, especially over the offshore Gulf waters. Winds
will diminish Sunday while becoming more northeasterly. A light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly flow will develop Monday and
continue into the middle part of next week. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob